Key Takeaways
- Cecafé data shows a significant gap between certificates issued and coffee dispatched.
- Record August exports and the completed harvest point to improving availability.
- Rising supply could pressure nearby differentials and limit New York upside.
Brazil’s coffee export pipeline is showing signs of becoming more active as the 2026 harvest moves into the shipping channel, potentially easing some of the nearby supply tightness that has supported prices in recent months.
At the same time, ICE-certified Arabica stocks fell 15% in August to 223,000 bags, their lowest level since February 1999. The historically depleted stock position remains a key source of support for New York futures, meaning any sustained increase in Brazilian export flows could have an outsized impact on market sentiment.
As of September 11, 709,879 bags were dispatched for export according to Cecafé data which delineated 578,289 bags of arabica versus 95,439 of conilon. A total of 1.336 million bags received origin certificates, indicating that a sizeable volume had been certified but had not yet been dispatched. This suggests additional coffee is positioned to enter the export flow, although certificates do not necessarily translate into immediate shipments.
The latest monthly data also point to improving availability. In August, Brazil exported a record 4.16 million bags of all coffee types in, up 31% from a year earlier, according to Cecafé. Arabica availability increased despite delayed harvesting progress due to rain. Meanwhile, conilon and robusta exports also reached a record for the month.
The export pipeline comes as the arabica harvest is nearing completion. The Cerrado Mineiro arabica harvest has been confirmed at 99% complete by September 11, according to an industry source. “Rain further delayed the final weeks of the harvest, but it is now basically complete”, said one market participant. Therefore, Brazilian arabica coffee from the main crop is now increasingly shifting from field supply to later stages such as commercialization, processing and logistics.
For market participants and observers of the global coffee market, the key question is whether this flow can translate into sustained physical availability. Brazil’s nearby export pace has strengthened, but certified stocks on ICE remain historically low and producers have shown willingness to sell when futures prices rally. If the pipeline continues building, increased Brazilian availability could put pressure on nearby differentials and limit upside in New York, particularly if origin selling accelerates around the 300 c/Lb area.
Image source: Shutterstock
Written by Sammy Rolls
