China’s total beef imports for the first quarter of 2026 reached 869,079 metric tons (MT), representing a 27.5% year-on-year (YOY) volume increase as major suppliers raced to beat newly implemented tariff cliffs.
While total importsin March recorded a slight 7.7% month-on-month (MOM) decline to 241,277 MT following the Lunar New Year peak, the broader trend remains expansive.
However, this robust start is not a result of growing demand.
The high utilization of annual safeguard quotas confirms that the front-loading frenzy has continued into the close of Q1 as major suppliers raced to beat newly implemented tariff cliffs.
China’s Safeguard Framework Drives Early Volume Shifts
Beijing’s new safeguard policy, which took effect on January 1, 2026, has triggered a tactical shift among exporters. Under this framework, once a specific country exceeds its assigned annual quota, any additional shipments are hit with a prohibitive 55% tariff for the remainder of the year.
With approximately 32% of the year’s total global quota (set at roughly 2.688 million MT) already arriving in the first quarter, the industry is closely monitoring the exhaustion dates for China’s two largest suppliers.
China’s beef imports in March 2026 reached 241,277 MT, according to GACC. While this represented a 7.7% MOM retreat from the high volumes seen in the first two months of the year, it marked a robust 13.2% YOY increase.
Brazil underpinned the bulk of these arrivals with 139,948 MT, though it saw a 13.0% MOM dip as the post-Lunar New Year peak subsided.
Conversely, Australia recorded a significant 70.0% MOM surge to 33,342 MT, as exporters accelerated shipments to maximize duty-free access before the expected safeguard trigger later this year.
Argentina and Uruguay contributed 37,301 MT and 12,349 MT respectively, both seeing MOM declines, while New Zealand rounded out the major suppliers with 9,442 MT, a 43.1% MOM recovery from its February lows.
China’s Economic Headwinds and Internal Supply Surfeits
The current surge in volume stands in stark contrast to the market cooling seen in 2025, when total imports dipped to 2.80 million MT.
That contraction was largely a byproduct of a massive sell-off in China’s domestic cattle sector, which saturated the market with local beef.
In 2025, domestic beef production grew by 2.8% YOY to 8.01 million MT.
China’s livestock sector continued the strong pace set in 2025. The combined national output of pork, beef, mutton, and poultry reached 26.62 million metric tons in the first three months of the year, representing a significant 4.8% YOY increase according to the latest National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data.
This growth underscores a drive toward greater self-sufficiency that has successfully built upon the higher production trends observed over the previous year.
This internal oversupply is meeting a period of significant consumer restraint. Economic instability, fueled by a persistent real estate crisis has triggered a widespread consumption downgrade as middle-class households tighten spending.
Brazil Navigates Massive Volume and Quota Depletion
Given its massive export capacity, Brazil remains the central focus for market participants.
By the end of Q1, Brazilian volumes reached 512,032 MT, accounting for 46.3% of its 1,106,000 MT annual allowance.
Although March shipments dipped by 13.0% MOM, Brazil’s quarterly performance reflects a 65.8% YOY surge, largely due to the clearance of backlogs from late 2025.
With nearly half of its quota exhausted in only three months, many market participants expect Brazil to trigger the 55% tariff rate from July August 2026.
Australia: Led the Pace in Duty-Free Exhaustion
Australia exhausted its duty-free allowance at the fastest rate of any major partner, posing the most immediate risk of hitting the safeguard limit.
Year-to-date (YTD) volumes hit 105,267 MT, a 32.3% YOY increase, meaning 51.3% of its 205,000 MT allocation was already gone by the end of March.
A 70.0% MOM jump in March suggested a strategic push by Australian exporters to maximize trade while the duty-free window remained open.
Market expectations indicated that should the Australian quota be reached between from June, New Zealand would become the only regional alternative capable of supplying prompt cargoes with duty-free capacity for the second half of the year.
Argentina and Uruguay: Lower Risk Profiles
The risk profile for Argentina and Uruguay was notably lower due to more measured utilization rates.
Argentina consumed 27.5% of its quota with 140,502 MT shipped YTD, while Uruguay utilized only 14.7% (47,534 MT) of its 324,000 MT allocation.
These suppliers maintained more consistent shipping patterns, leaving substantial buffers for the remainder of the calendar year.
New Zealand Supply Constraints Limit Safe-Haven Potential
New Zealand similarly faced minimal risk of triggering the safeguard, with 28,770 MT shipped YTD, filling 14.0% of its 206,000 MT quota by the end of the quarter.
However, New Zealand’s ability to fill the gap likely to be left by other suppliers was hampered by lower domestic cattle kills.
Furthermore, the diversion of available supply toward more profitable margins in the United States continued to limit the volume of product destined for the Chinese market.
The Regulatory Barriers Stifled US Trade Recovery
Finally, the United States continued to see minimal trade recovery despite recent policy shifts.
Following the removal of retaliatory tariffs, YTD shipments remained negligible at just 544 MT.
This lack of momentum was primarily due to ongoing regulatory hurdles, as the majority of US processing plants still awaited the renewal of lapsed registration permits (CIFER) required for entry into the Chinese market.
Please note that import figures may vary from export data published by other official sources due to differences in the methodologies used by each entity/organization for collecting and reporting data.
Expana provides regular beef market coverage for the geographies listed in this analysis. For full access, get in touch.
Written by Augusto Eto, Junie Lin and Russ Whitman
