Starting January 2026 and well into February 2026, rainfall in some parts of Europe was around double the norm. More precisely, parts of Spain recorded the highest rainfall in nearly half a century, and Italy also received precipitation well above the average, weighing on tomato and strawberry outputs.
“Spanish tomato prices were high in March, but easing now as more tomatoes are being grown,” reported Expana’s Market Reporter, Craig Elliott who pointed to supply tightness after the weather disruption.
Figure 1. April 2026 precipitation percent change from the 30-year average in Portugal, Spain and Italy.
The weather trend inverted in March and April, leaving below average rain. For strawberries, production made a comeback: Producers told Expana output had recovered compared to previous years.
The hefty rainfall also led to higher water reservoir levels, allowing for olive tree irrigation now that the rainfall pattern has inverted, according to market sources.
Tomato Planting Is Going Well and to Schedule, Producers Say
Spanish Tomato supply dropped significantly in the first quarter of 2026 due to the heavy rains. But with a drop in rainfall levels, planting in Spain is reportedly going well and to schedule, market sources told Expana’s Market Reporter, Craig Elliott.
“Planting operations have been running smoothly and on time in all regions as after a rainy winter the spring has been dry so far. In Extremadura, about 60% of the surfaces have been planted to date, but rain is expected this week and may interrupt the activities for a day or two. In Andalusia planting should finish in about a week. No change in the forecast,” according to the World Processing Tomato Council whose officials expect Spain’s 2026 processing tomato production to increase by 14.1% year-over-year.
As of mid-May, incoming tomato supply from Spain could pull prices back. Reports suggest that prices started declining towards the end of April (latest data) but remain elevated. Across Europe, markets are broadly considered to be stabilizing following the recent tight supply and sharp price increases.
Similarly, planting is reportedly going well in Italy.
“In the North, the framework agreement on price was reached at the end of March with an average price of 137 euros per tonne ex field including premiums for late varieties and variations based on quality parameters…,” according to the World Processing Tomato Council.
“To date, about 35% of the surfaces have been planted, which is normal. The weather is good and the plants are developing well. In the Centre and South, the good news is that following heavy rains the Occhito dam is full at more than 200 million m3 for the first time in three years so there will be no issue with irrigation in Puglia this year… Prices have not yet been agreed: the war has increased costs of energy and fertilizers making negotiations difficult. Another meeting is planned next week. Current forecasts remain unchanged at 2.8 million tonnes for the South and 3 million for the North.”
Strawberry Production Recovers After Low Output Earlier in the Season, Companies Say
The hefty rainfall in Spain also delayed the strawberry season, which lasts from December into June. The Spanish State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) registered 171% more rainfall over winter 2025-2026, with new records set for continuous days of rain. In some parts of the country, it rained for 80 continuous days, and the 17 named storms over January and February marked a 47-year high for precipitation in that period, AEMET data shows.
“We were down by 25 to 30% compared to previous years,” Freson de Palos, a major Spanish producer and exporter told Expana.
However, in the last week of March, when the rainfall decreased and the sun came out more, plants increased production.
“The plants that had not produced fruit, or not much all winter, started producing like never before. Over the past month, we have caught up to production levels from previous years,” Freson de Palos told Expana.
Rainfall Could Support Irrigation for Olive Trees
The intense rainfall over winter, however, has also supported Spanish water reservoirs, data from the Spanish ministry of Environment (MITECO) shows. Water levels are higher on the year, which could support irrigation for olive trees in the Mediterranean and Andalusian regions, where most olive oil production happens, and crops rely on irrigation during the warm months.
Figure 2. 2026 precipitation percent change from the 30-year average in Portugal, Spain and Italy.
As olive trees enter flowering season (end April-June), market sources told Expana they tentatively estimate Spanish olive oil production at around 1.4 million mt, higher than the five-year average.
Market players describe vegetation conditions as broadly favorable, supported by mild temperatures and intermittent rainfall.
Sources told Expana the weather will remain the main driver for the market, as continued mild temperatures and timely rainfall would reinforce expectations for a more comfortable upcoming crop, sources told Expana.
Image source: Adobe
Written by Thess Mostoles, Ryan Gallagher, Craig Elliott, Kyle Holland and James Tyler
