Global Beef and Pork Forecast 2027: Tight Beef Supply Meets Ample Pork

Beef and pork markets are heading into 2027 under two very different conditions. Beef supply is tight and will stay that way. Pork faces the opposite challenge.

In Expana’s recent 2027 forecasting briefing, four analysts walked through the outlook for both proteins. Bill Smith, Managing Editor for Beef, and Augusto Eto, Red Meat Analyst, covered beef supply and trade.

Mason Augustino, Pork Market Reporter, covered pork, and Senior Forecast Analyst Amanda Rastovic presented Expana’s price forecasts for key cuts.

US Beef: Rebuilding Has Started, but Supply Stays Tight

The US cattle cycle runs about 10 years, compared with three to four for hogs, so changes take years to reach supply.

Female slaughter has now been below 47% of the total for 12 weeks, the threshold the industry uses to mark the start of herd rebuilding. Smith explained that it typically takes 18 months to two years before rebuilding adds to supply. In the meantime, farmers hold back heifers and cows, so fewer animals reach slaughter. “For 2027, that means tight supply is still the reality,” he said. The herd is at its smallest since the 1950s, and Smith expects it to rebuild to around 98 to 100 million head rather than the 1970s peak.

Slaughter is down 7.2% so far this year. Record carcass weights have held the drop in beef production to about 5%. Imports have covered much of the rest, rising from about 300 million pounds in 2023 to nearly 500 million by mid-2026, mostly lean grinding beef from Australia and Brazil.

Heavier cattle have also lifted the share grading Choice, helping keep the Choice cutout level with last year at $3.61/lb.

Trade Policy Is Redirecting Global Beef

Brazil overtook the US as the world’s largest beef producer in 2025, but its herd has been shrinking since 2023 and may now be nearing its own rebuilding phase.

Trade rules increasingly decide where that beef goes. This year, China introduced country-specific quotas with a 55% tariff on volumes above them. Chinese imports rose 17.5% to 1.53 million metric tons in the first half, but Eto said much of that was front-loading rather than stronger demand. Australia exhausted its quota on June 18 and Brazil on September 29. Both reset for 2027.

China’s share of Brazilian beef exports has fallen from 53% to 42%. The US added 300,000 metric tons of quota for lean beef trimmings from September to November and overtook China as Brazil’s largest beef destination. In Europe, restrictions on Brazilian meat over antimicrobial use took effect on September 3.

2027 Forecast: Beef

Expana’s forecasts run two years ahead with quarterly targets, setting out the expected trend, its duration and how far prices could move.

• Chuck shoulder clod (Choice): a sharp drop in Q4, a rebound in early Q1 2027 and a dip into May. Prices look high against fundamentals.
• Coarse ground 81: continued volatility, with a low by year-end and a rise in the first half of Q1. Further downside looks limited.
• Brisket: close to its seasonal low, with a lift into December before easing in Q1.
• Top sirloin butt (Select): a further decline before a peak in late Q1 or early Q2 2027.

Speculator positioning in CME live cattle futures remains supportive.

Pork: Ample Supply, Low Prices

Pork was the world’s most consumed protein in 2025, at 118.6 million metric tons, about twice the volume of beef and 13 million metric tons more than chicken, according to USDA data.

Litter sizes have reached a record 11.96 pigs, so the US industry needs fewer sows to produce the same supply.

US slaughter is 1% below last year and production is roughly flat, yet the pork cutout is at 52-week lows and August frozen pork stocks were 12% higher than a year earlier. Augustino said sellers are discounting some cuts, like bellies, to move product, with belly prices near 2023 levels following the peak summer bacon season. US exports, which account for about a third of production, face tougher competition in Asia from EU pork and cheaper Brazilian pork.

EU pork prices bottomed early in 2026, rallied through summer and are easing again as demand shifts from grilling to roasting cuts.

2027 Forecast: Pork

Expana’s forecasts suggest several US pork cuts are close to a low.

• Bellies: expected to move higher into Q1 2027. The price gap to the wider pork market has reached a historically unsustainable level, and speculators hold a large net short position.
• 42% trimmings: likely near the bottom, with a short rise into November or early December before easing into late Q1.
• Ribs: starting to form a bottom, with a rise in the first half of Q1 before a pullback.

EU pork prices sit well below the range Expana’s regression model considers sustainable, though the forecast points to further weakness into early Q1 before a seasonal recovery.

Beef buyers face another year of tight supply in 2027, while pork buyers are watching for the turn after months of oversupply. Watch the full webinar on demand for the complete session and Q&A.

This commentary is prepared by Expana and its group of companies, neither of which is an investment firm. We have no positions in the commodities or derivatives referenced. The views expressed are for information only. See our disclaimer for more information:

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