Global Industrial Price Change
Overview Report
Energy, freight, plastics, metals, paper — which markets have moved, why have they moved, and what it could mean for your supply chain costs, sourcing and customer negotiations.
Freight & Logistics
Shipping & Road Freight · July 2026
In June, the average price of the Shipping 40ft Composite Index increased by 46.0% MOM and rose by 13.4% YOY to $3,779.16/unit. The anticipated imposition of new import tariffs by the US administration and fuel surcharges, general rate increases and peak season surcharges by carriers continued to drive frontloading, pushing up shipping prices. Although the US-Iran peace deal initially improved sentiment, the subsequent resumption of hostilities has led market participants to speculate that fuel prices could again increase. Sources suggest the earlier-than-expected start to peak season is the key driver, with demand showing signs of softening towards the end of July.
In June, the European Road Freight decreased by 0.2% MOM and rose by 10.0% YOY to 141.01 points. The EU road freight market recorded an uptick in activity, underpinned by a pickup in factory output and a rebound in trade across the UK and Europe. However, despite improving demand, the cost environment remains challenging as fuel, compliance and staffing pressures keep a floor under rates. Cross-border freight is growing faster than domestic transport. European manufacturers are expanding, and companies are sourcing from nearby markets and building regional distribution networks to reduce supply chain risk. Structural headwinds, particularly driver shortages, mean rates are unlikely to soften materially and should stay elevated at least in the short term.
Shipping’s +46.0% MOM spike is the largest single-month move in the report — a direct cost exposure risk for procurement teams buying FOB.
Energy
Crude Oil, Natural Gas & Electricity · July 2026
In June, the average price of ICE EU Crude oil decreased by 18.6% MOM and rose by 21.0% YOY to $84.43/barrel. Crude oil prices fell markedly throughout June after consecutive months of spiking prices. The MOM decline was attributable to the signing of an initial peace treaty between the US and Iran, thus raising optimism over the prospect of increased crude oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. However, tensions have again escalated in July following the end to the ceasefire and the resurgence of attacks against tankers.
In June, the average price of NL Natural Gas decreased by 5.0% MOM and rose by 22.6% YOY to €44.95/MWh. Natural gas prices declined throughout June, attributable to the signing of an initial peace treaty between the US and Iran and the prospect of increased LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz from states such as Qatar. However, the escalating tensions resulted in the Qatari Transport Ministry issuing an urgent call to all Qatari-linked shipping to avoid transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, once again lowering LNG exports from the Gulf to Europe.
In June, the average price of European Electricity index increased by 26.2% MOM and rose by 45.0% YOY to €93.08/MWh. Electricity prices increased markedly throughout June, driven upwards by surging air conditioning demand caused by a major heatwave in late June. Market participants expect persistently elevated cooling demand in response to the ongoing heatwave in Europe.
Electricity’s +26.2% month-on-month surge underscores the growing cost exposure for supply chains to weather-driven events — compounding the ongoing volatility from Middle East supply disruptions.
Plastics
HDPE, LDPE, PET & PP · July 2026
In June, the average price of EU HDPE decreased by 3.2% MOM and rose by 62.2% YOY to €2,413/MT. Prices moved downwards throughout the month, with order levels falling. Increased imports reduced supply pressures across the EU, while a decline in production costs pulled down product prices MOM.
In June, the average price of EU LDPE decreased by 3.3% MOM and rose by 53.9% YOY to €2,921.75/MT. Easing geopolitical tensions resulted in declining ethylene prices, which in turn lowered product prices. Demand was poor with the approaching summer holidays, while imports from Asian origins arriving into the EU increased throughout June.
In June, the average price of US HDPE decreased by 3.3% MOM and rose by 14.5% YOY to USc 65.25/Lb. Panic demand continued to fall away, with market fundamentals balancing due to easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Domestic packaging demand was reportedly sluggish, although demand from construction and automotive sectors was stronger.
In June, the average price of US LDPE decreased by 3.7% MOM and rose by 8.9% YOY to USc 104/Lb. The continued decline in ethylene prices resulted in decreasing LDPE prices in the US, as manufacturers were no longer able to justify price increases as was the case during the most challenging periods of the Middle East conflict.
In June, the average price of EU PET decreased by 1.9% MOM and rose by 42.4% YOY to €1,450.50/MT. PET prices in the EU continued to stabilize throughout June, attributable to easing tensions in the Middle East and resulting lower production costs. Demand reportedly remained robust due to increased orders from drinks manufacturers as summer approaches.
In June, the average price of US PET decreased by 5.0% MOM and rose by 13.1% YOY to USc 71.25/Lb. Falling production costs lowered product prices, although product prices remain elevated compared to pre-war levels. Demand was strong, according to market participants, especially from drinks manufacturers.
In June, the average price of EU PP decreased by 3.5% MOM and rose by 65.6% YOY to €2,278/MT. PP prices fell notably throughout June, pushed downwards by lower production costs. Demand reportedly shrank throughout the month, with manufacturers operating at reduced capacity still able to cater for order levels.
In June, the average price of US PP decreased by 3.3% MOM and declined by 0.3% YOY to USc 73.75/Lb. PP prices continued to move downwards throughout the month, attributable to lower feedstock costs and a more balanced supply and demand environment. Export demand also cooled down compared to the dynamic in previous months.
Metals
Iron Ore, Steel, Aluminium & Nickel · July 2026
In June, the average price of Chinese Iron ore decreased by 6.4% MOM and rose by 7.9% YOY to $100.32/MT. Prices fell sharply from mid-May onward, reaching their lowest levels since July 2025 by end of June. Nevertheless, with steel production recovering and approaching its seasonal peak in June, market sources believe a positive price correction will follow.
In June, the average 3m futures price of US HRC steel at CME increased by 4.2% MOM and rose by 37.8% YOY to $1,319.30/MT. At the same time, in late June a substantial decline in futures prices began, and in early July the 3m futures price fell to spot market levels. Some sources indicated that prices were likely inflated, as tariffs had already fully reflected in domestic prices. EU HRC steel price decreased 1.4% MOM and rose 12.9% YOY to EUR 688.75/MT. Weak demand and elevated inventory levels were the primary drivers of the decline.
In June, the average 3m futures price of LME Aluminium decreased by 4.4% MOM and rose by 36.6% YOY to $3,438.89/MT. The fall in aluminium prices was the steepest among base metals, driven by the resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which carried approximately 8% of global exports before the strait’s closure. Based on price dynamics late in the month, many sources expect price declines to continue as shipping operations fully recover.
In June, the average 3m futures price of LME Nickel decreased by 6.2% MOM and rose by 17.5% YOY to $17,856.36/MT. In late June, speculation surfaced regarding a possible upward revision to Indonesia’s RKAB nickel ore mining quotas. Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy subsequently denied the specific figures cited, leaving uncertainty over final output volumes for the second half of 2026. Nickel ore imports from the Philippines are partially offsetting the Indonesian supply shortfall, but market participants broadly agree that full compensation will not be achieved.
Base Metals
Copper, Zinc, Lead & Tin · July 2026
In June, the average 3m futures price of LME Copper increased by 0.6% MOM and rose by 40.3% YOY to $13,616.73/MT. After production declined in March 2026, output expanded significantly in April, once again exceeding consumption. Global refined copper demand for the first two months of 2026 rose 1.6% YOY, while supply grew 3.5% YOY. Copper inventories on the LME began declining in June following a May peak but remain elevated, continuing to weigh on prices. Market sources also pointed to weak copper demand in China during May and June.
In June, the average 3m futures price of LME Zinc increased by 1.6% MOM and rose by 32.5% YOY to $3,547.91/MT. Refined zinc production in China rose 6% YOY for the first five months of 2026, yet domestic demand is not absorbing this increase. Weak real estate activity is restraining consumption in the hot-dip galvanizing sector, which accounts for 50–60% of global metal demand. The supply surplus recorded in the global market in February and March 2026 may be an early signal that the market is shifting from deficit to surplus.
In June, the average 3m futures price of LME Lead decreased by 0.9% MOM and declined by 1.5% YOY to $1,969.30/MT. Subdued demand in the automotive sector continues to pressure the lead market. Lead prices have remained range-bound in a narrow corridor since the start of 2025.
In June, the average 3m futures price of LME Tin increased by 0.1% MOM and rose by 64.9% YOY to $53,601.59/MT. The tin market maintains a structural deficit, as production growth does not cover accelerating demand from the electronics industry and semiconductor manufacturing. Supplies from Myanmar’s Wa State, halted in August 2023, are gradually recovering since the end of 2025. Structural supply vulnerability persists, as 97% of global tin production is concentrated in developing countries with elevated geopolitical and regulatory risks.
Tin at +64.9% year-on-year is the standout data point in the metals complex — a structural deficit driven by semiconductor demand growth that supply is unable to match in the short term.
Paper
EU & US Paper Grades · July 2026
In June, the average price of EU Kraftliner increased by 6.2% MOM and rose by 6.2% YOY to €1,024.50/MT. Pulp prices in Europe continued to rise, pushing kraftliner production costs upward. Specifically, BNK pulp increased 4% MOM and 30% YOY in June. Pulp supply was constrained due to capacity shutdowns in May. As a result, unlike packaging paper produced primarily from waste paper, kraftliner prices rose.
In June, the average price of EU Testliner was unchanged MOM and declined by 1.3% YOY to €760/MT. Price stabilization was driven by the relative stability of raw material and energy prices in Europe. Despite rising pulp prices, waste paper — which is predominantly used in testliner production — held stable prices. As a result, amid moderate market demand, producers were unable to raise testliner prices in June.
In June, the average price of EU Fluting was unchanged MOM and rose by 3.5% YOY to €877.50/MT. Producers of semichemical fluting were unable to raise prices in June because production cost drivers were absent, and the market remained well balanced with adequate supply.
In June, the average price of EU Cartonboard GC2 was unchanged MOM and declined by 3.3% YOY to €1,165/MT, and Cartonboard GT2 was unchanged MOM and declined by 2.4% YOY to €825/MT. High competition in the market prevents producers from passing elevated energy, logistics, and rising labour costs on to customers. Negotiations over potential price increases continue. Demand was moderate, restraining suppliers’ willingness to raise prices.
In June, the average price of US Linerboard increased by 5.5% MOM and rose by 4.3% YOY to $0.48/Lb. Supply-side tightening continued to drive pricing power even as demand remained tepid. Roughly 10% of containerboard capacity was permanently retired between February 2025 and March 2026. Mill order backlogs increased in June, signaling ample demand for the summer season.
In June, the average price of US Testliner increased by 6.4% MOM and rose by 6.4% YOY to $0.42/Lb. Softening feedstock cost gives recycled linerboard producers a modest margin tailwind even as finished product prices rise, though OCC remains roughly 4–5% above year-ago levels. Kruger restarted its roughly 363,000 MT/year Machine No. 10 at the Trois-Rivières mill in Quebec around June 20 after a three-week strike.
In June, the average price of US Cartonboard SBB increased by 0.8% MOM and declined by 1.6% YOY to $0.63/Lb. Persistent oversupply kept producers focused on capacity rationalization rather than price hikes, with Clearwater Paper announcing plans in April to halve output at its Cypress Bend, Arkansas SBS mill and Smurfit Westrock having permanently shut a machine at its La Tuque, Quebec facility earlier in the year.
In June, the average price of US Cartonboard FBB was unchanged MOM and rose by 3.0% YOY to $0.69/Lb. Elevated transatlantic freight costs tied to the broader Middle East-driven logistics disruption continue to impact imported FBB price dynamics relative to competing grades.
Textiles
Cotton US & India · July 2026
The average weekly price of US Cotton as of June 24 decreased by 3.4% MOM and rose by 14.8% YOY to USc 74.67/Lb. Demand reportedly softened throughout the month, contributing to the downward price move even against the backdrop of tightening supply. The June 2026 USDA WASDE report showed reduced beginning and ending stocks for 2026/27, with the US crop projected at around 13.3 million bales — down approximately 600,000 bales compared to the prior estimate.
The average weekly price of Indian Cotton as of June 24 decreased by 2.5% MOM and rose by 18.6% YOY to INR 181,989.13/MT. The MOM price decline was attributable to expectations of a large 2026/27 crop, which resulted in mills remaining cautious about being aggressive with prices.
Written by Farah Rahman
