South American coffee, avocado, and papaya producers faced weather challenges in February as excessive rainfall affected flowering, harvesting, and disease pressure across multiple regions, according to Expana’s February 2026 Global Weather News report.
Northern Colombia received more than four times its average February rainfall, causing flooding that damaged infrastructure, buildings, and crops.
Figure 1. Brazil, Colombia and Peru’s 2026 February precipitation percentage change compared to the 30-year average.
At the same time, Colombia’s coffee production in February fell 36% YOY, according to an article cited by Expana.
“National coffee production in February reached 869 thousand 60 kg bags, reflecting a -36% drop compared to the same month last year. Lower coffee availability, linked to weather conditions,” wrote Germán Bahamón, the National Federation of Coffee Growers (Fedecafé) general manager.
He warned that the figures confirm “an important adjustment in supply.”
Flooding in Colombia was also a factor being watched by market participants, according to Market Reporter, Sammy Rolls. Coffee plants in the flowering stage face increased disease pressure from persistent rainfall. Damaged flowers could affect 2026/27 yields if flowering is significantly disrupted.
As of December 2025, Colombia’s 2025/26 coffee crop is expected to fall, compared to the prior year, according to the Expana fundamentals team (previously Tropical Research Services) who noted at the time that “weather conditions in the coming months will be essential for coffee cherry development.”
The team just finished another macro survey is during February 2026, with results for Expana’s clients on the way.
Colombia is a major coffee exporter, accounting for around 8% of global exports. The country is a relatively minor exporter of avocados and palm oil.
Peru’s Avocado Pollination Disrupted by Doubled Rainfall
Peru’s central-western coast received more than double normal rainfall in February, particularly affecting avocado-growing regions.
“Heavy rainfall linked to a coastal El Niño event in early 2026 has disrupted avocado flowering and pollination in northern Peru. Persistent rain and cloud cover reduce bee activity and increase flower drop, limiting fruit set,” Fruit and Vegetable Market Reporter, Holly Bianchi explained. “The weather has already damaged thousands of hectares of fruit crops and could slow Peru’s avocado export growth in the upcoming season while also affecting mango and blueberry production,” she added.
Excess rainfall during avocado flowering can hamper bee activity and disrupt pollination. This reduces fruit set and promotes disease. Peru accounts for nearly 20% of global avocado exports.
Peru’s 2025 avocado season featured high fruit volumes and steady exports, particularly to European markets. Early projections indicate 2026 production could rise 5 to 7%, aided by expanded acreage.
Brazil Papaya Growers Fear Anthracnose Surge After Heavy Rains
Parts of Brazil’s east coast received up to 80% more rainfall than usual in February, threatening key papaya-producing areas, as heavy rains can damage fruits and cause fruit drop, lowering overall yields.
The high rainfall provided relief following months of dry conditions, replenishing irrigation reserves. However, earlier hot and dry weather increased the presence of viruses and mites. Growers now worry that fungal diseases, such as anthracnose, could increase during March.
Brazil supplies 10% of global papaya exports. If pest and disease pressure continues, market supplies could become limited.
Written by Demelza Knight, Thess Mostoles, Ryan Gallagher, Holly Bianchi and Sammy Rolls
