Metal prices for packaging metals moved in different directions in October
Artem Segen
The price of 3m futures aluminum at LME increased by 6.2% m-o-m to $2,621/mt in October. Market players were waiting for more significant stimulus measures from the Chinese government, so expectations for future aluminum and metal prices consumption growth softened during October. Nevertheless, the strong fundamental driver of aluminum prices was the continued rise in raw material prices on the back of low supply in China, affecting the global market.
November 15 the aluminum market was shaken by news of China’s cancellation of export tax incentives, which was reflected in a 6% rise for the day. The world market could face a shortage of aluminum if exports from China decline. Market sources believe that the rising trend of aluminum prices will continue in November.
Prices for aluminum packaging products for metal prices continued to rise in October, supported by higher LME aluminum prices: prices for aluminum cans from stock in the EU rose by 3% m-o-m, aluminum foil prices rose by 6% m-o-m; in the US prices for aluminum cans and for aluminum foil rose by 2% m-o-m.
In October, the average price of US HRC at CME decreased by 1.1% m-o-m and declined by 10.6% y-o-y to $844/mt; the average price of EU HRC decreased by 4.3% m-o-m and declined by 10.9% y-o-y to €556/mt. Despite weak steel demand in the US and EU markets, the pressure of cheap imports from Asia is easing as steel prices in China remain high. In addition, the cost of iron ore and coking coal in China is also relatively high, which is reflected in rising raw material costs in the US and EU, as the global benchmark for steel raw material prices is China.
Demand for tinplate remains weak globally, but higher HRC prices in China were mirrored by a 10% m-o-m rise in domestic prices in October. Higher import prices were reflected in a 6% m-o-m increase in EU spot prices for tinplate in October, while in the US market tinplate prices rose by 9% m-o-m.
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Written by Nick Wood
