Middle East Conflict: Grain Imports Across Region Likely To Be Slashed

Maritime disruptions stemming from the Middle East conflict and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a slowdown in grain imports across key regional markets, according to the Expana Grains Analysis team.

Expana forecasts a sharp drop in cereal shipments during March, with effects expected to extend into April 2026 for Iran and nations directly impacted by the blockade and associated reprisal measures. These countries include the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, and Iraq.

Because of the conflict, Expana revises down wheat, barley and corn imports by 5 to 20% in the region during the 2025/26 marketing year. Iran faces particularly steep declines, with wheat imports revised down by 21%, and barley and corn down by 8%. The reductions translate into volume losses totaling 0.6 million metric tons (MT) of wheat, 1 million MT of corn, and 0.2 million MT of barley.

“The magnitude of the reduction will of course depend on the duration of the conflict. For now, assuming a duration of one to two months, we believe these countries will draw more on their stocks without affecting demand,” the Expana Grains Analysis team said.

Several other Middle Eastern countries, including Saudi Arabia, Oman, Yemen, Jordan, Lebanon, and Syria, are projected to experience a less pronounced slowdown limited to March alone. However, Iranian demand for wheat-barley-corn combined has been cut by 3%, reflecting the expected economic impact of the ongoing conflict on the country.

The conflict is likely to depress cereal market fundamentals throughout the 2025/26 year, contributing to mounting unshipped exports in supplier regions such as the European Union, Argentina, Australia, and Russia.

“Cereals market fundamentals are likely to remain weak in 2025/26, and unshipped exports to the Middle East would accumulate with exporting countries or be redirected to other importing regions such as Asia or Africa,” Expana noted.