Middle East Conflict Impact on Energy and Commodities: Expert Webinar Recap & Insights

Webinar Overview and Speakers 

On day four of the escalating Middle East conflict, Expana convened a panel of experts to discuss the unfolding geopolitical tensions and their immediate impact on global energy markets, shipping routes, and commodity supply chains. Leveraging Expana’s trusted IOSCO-assured pricing benchmarks, proprietary data, and leading price forecasting capabilities, the webinar delivered critical insights for procurement, trading, and supply chain teams.

Meet the Speakers: 

• Simon Duke, Managing Editor, Expana 

• Andrew Woods, Senior Market Reporter, Expana — specializing in energy and shipping markets 

• Tosin Jack, Director of Market Reporting, Expana — expert on commodity and protein markets 

• Tom Bundgaard, Vice President of Price Forecasting, Expana — forecasting specialist with a focus on crude oil 

Key Takeaways 

• The Strait of Hormuz disruption is causing immediate and significant shocks to global energy supply chains, with about 20% of global oil and substantial LNG volumes affected. 

• Major maritime carriers are rerouting vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, creating longer transit times, higher freight costs, and widespread shipping delays impacting perishable and energy-intensive goods. 

• Commodity markets show early signs of disruption: soybean oil prices surge due to crude oil and biofuel demand; grains markets reflect geopolitical risk premiums; dairy prices rise amid regional trade changes; and sulfur supply concerns threaten fertilizer and feed inputs. 

• Expana’s price forecasting models identified rising crude oil price risk early in the year. Current market conditions reflect a panic phase that may extend into Q2 and Q3, depending on conflict duration and logistical ripple effects. 

• Procurement teams should combine Expana’s procurement-specific commodity news, extensive price series, and predictive forecasts to mitigate risk, manage supply chains, and align hedging strategies effectively. 

Geopolitical and Energy Market Impact 

The panel explored the intensified hostilities around the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global energy security. Iran’s threats and attacks on commercial vessels have led to a sharp decline in ship traffic through the corridor. Using Expana’s IOSCO-assured benchmarks, it’s clear that this blockade is disrupting approximately one-fifth of global crude oil production and a significant percentage of LNG shipments, impacting energy prices and supply forecasts worldwide. 

Shipping disruptions extend beyond energy. Carrier rerouting causes increased voyage times and fuel consumption, driving freight rates higher and impacting the transportation of agricultural and industrial goods across Asia and Europe. This multi-commodity ripple effect underscores the urgency for supply chain monitoring and adaptive procurement approaches. 

Commodities Deep-Dive: Soybeans, Grains & Proteins 

Soybean Oil and Biofuel Demand 

Tosin Jack highlighted soybean oil’s critical correlation with energy markets. As crude oil prices surge, demand for soy-based biofuels rises in tandem. Chicago soybean futures jumped to their highest level in over two years, primarily driven by energy price increases and biofuel mandates requiring increased biofuel blending. This makes soybean oil a key commodity sensitive to current geopolitical energy shocks. 

Grains Market Trends 

Wheat and corn futures have been moving modestly higher on Euronext and CME markets, reflecting the inclusion of geopolitical risk premiums. The Middle East accounts for roughly 12% of global wheat imports, making it a pivotal trade zone. Disruptions to shipping or import volumes—due to physical blockades or rising insurance and logistics costs—could prompt regional buyers to rely on stockpiles in the short term. Traders expect gradual, sustained price increases rather than sharp spikes. 

Dairy Sector Developments 

In the dairy sector, particularly skim milk powder (SMP), prices are rising on altered regional trade flows. Iran’s position as the fourth-largest exporter of SMP to Middle Eastern markets is significant. Some market participants preemptively built up security stocks earlier this year during a period of historically low SMP prices, which has softened shock potential but not eliminated upward price pressure. 

Sulfur and Feed Inputs 

Sulfur plays a vital role in fertilizer production and animal nutrition feed phosphates. Panelists noted existing refinery impacts could constrain sulfur supplies, pushing up costs across agriculture and industrial markets. Expana data already shows feed phosphate prices rising in China, signaling a broader supply tightening effect. This is critical for downstream manufacturing sectors dependent on feed additives and fertilizers. 

Expana’s platform offers comprehensive historical price series (with over 28,000 price series globally) and forward forecasts, enabling procurement teams to quantify these shifts and strengthen negotiation positions with suppliers. 

Crude Oil Forecast & Market Outlook 

Tom Bundgaard shared exclusive insights from Expana’s predictive analytics platform. Despite stable forecasts set months ago for crude oil between $15-$16 lows and peaks near $82 per barrel in Q1, current prices have already exceeded this, reaching $84 in real time due to panic-driven buying and supply disruption fears. 

The market is in a panic phase expected to last through Q2, with a possible plateau or slight correction as participants reassess conflict longevity. Speculator positions are historically low, leaving room for further price spikes should speculative interest increase. Expana’s hedging recommendations from January anticipated these risks and highlighted the value of securing supply and pricing strategies early. 

The ongoing conflict and shipping disruptions could continue to push prices further into Q3, with the typical logistics domino effects extending market volatility well beyond actual conflict resolution.