As of April 8, the ceasefire between the US and Iran has provided only limited relief to Indian coffee exporters. Set to expire on April 22, the ceasefire has not improved shipping conditions through the Strait; traders say the sector is preparing for renewed disruption if the truce is not extended.
India is a significant global origin—ranked the world’s seventh-largest coffee producer according to the US Department of Agriculture—with output for 2025-26 estimated by USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service at around 360,000 metric tons (approximately 6 million 60-Kg bags). This includes roughly 81,000 mt of Arabica and 282,000 mt of Robusta, underscoring the country’s heavy reliance on Robusta for export earnings.
Over the past decade, India has steadily expanded its presence in West Asia. The UAE, Saudi Arabia and Jordan together accounted for more than 16% of India’s total coffee exports in 2024, making the region one of the country’s most important growth markets, according to Coffee Board of India data.
Even under the ceasefire, exporters report persistent vessel delays, elevated insurance premiums and rerouting around high-risk zones. Containers are being held at trans-shipment hubs or diverted onto longer, costlier routes. Freight rates on westbound lanes have more than doubled since the conflict escalated earlier this year, squeezing margins for exporters who typically operate on narrow differentials.
The risk exposure is particularly acute for Robusta shipments relative to India’s Arabica exports, because Robusta accounts for the majority of India’s outbound volume and is disproportionately dependent on West Asian demand. Traders estimate that as much as 80% of India’s Robusta sales into West Asia could be vulnerable if shipping conditions deteriorate once the ceasefire expires. Several buyers in the region are already exploring alternative origins to mitigate potential supply gaps. The broader market backdrop is also firm: ICE Robusta futures settled at $3,494/mt as of 5 p.m. London time on April 20, according to ICE, adding further cost pressure to physical shipments.
Expana does not assess prices of Indian coffee, but according to a market source, Indian Robustas are currently indicated around $3,967–$4,017/mt CIF for Cherry AB and Cherry A grades for March/April shipment, based on differentials of $580 and $630 respectively. Expana does, however, assess Arabica prices in nearby East African origins: Ethiopia’s Djimmah Grade 5 (CDE1) firmed from –20 to –15 USc/Lb FOB between April 6 and April 13, while Kenya’s AB grade (CDK1) strengthened from 45 to 50 USc/Lb FOB between March 9 and March 16.
These upward moves in East African benchmarks mirror a wider firming in coffee prices across supply chains linked to the Middle East. While the region itself is not a producer, it sits at the center of key shipping corridors, and the ongoing conflict has pushed up freight, insurance and bunker fuel costs. With energy markets elevated and carriers diverting vessels away from the Red Sea and Gulf routes, logistics-driven inflation is feeding directly into export prices from origins that rely on these corridors. The combination of geopolitical risk, higher transport costs, and tightening availability has created a supportive backdrop for both Arabica and Robusta values, amplifying price momentum across the broader coffee complex.
With the ceasefire set to expire and no durable diplomatic progress emerging, exporters expect freight volatility to remain a central risk for Indian coffee. Whether India can hold its position in West Asia will depend on the direction of shipping conditions in the coming weeks — and critically, on whether the ceasefire is prolonged or the conflict re‑ignites, triggering another round of logistical disruption.
Written by Sammy Rolls
