Global sugar futures prices (ICE NY #11) rebounded sharply towards the end of the month, with the October 2024 contract closing on July 30th at 19.12 USc/lb. Futures touched an intra-month low of 17.86 USc/lb on July 24th. White premiums have also fallen on lower white sugar market demand, especially in the MENA region, and amid increasing prospects for EU sugar exports. Prices rose shortly before UNICA published its last C/S Brazil crop update, the results being lower than expected by the market.
The main highlight of the UNICA report was the sugar/ethanol mix, which may now struggle to reach an average of 50% at the end of the season. In this case, the global market may be short between the end of the C/S Brazil crop and the start of the Indian and Thai crops.
Also, the period between the end of the C/S Brazil crop as from about November 2024, and the start-up of the Thai crop at around the same time may lead to a gap in supply availability, especially if Indian exports remain banned and/or China returns to import from the global market.
Meanwhile, nearby domestic raw futures prices (ICE NY #16) followed suit with world prices and shifted downward throughout the month. Sources continue to note the increasing spread between the #16 price and spot prices. Sources tell Expana that spot prices for beet and cane sugar have been steady throughout the month in the US, and there is increasing flexibility during negotiations. Movement for deliveries has been positive but is still down from last summer.
The Expana Benchmark Price for beet sugar spot Midwest was last assessed at $0.54/lb, and cane sugar spot Southeast was most recently assessed at $0.58/lb. Both prices have decreased m-o-m as the product is readily available, and buyers are more confident in their positions than they were last year.
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Written by Nick Wood
