Recent tariff policy changes in the US reshaped market conditions for Brazilian beef suppliers. Earlier in the year, Brazil had faced a sharp slowdown in beef exports to the US after reciprocal tariffs were introduced. In the latest policy changes last week, the US announced new reciprocal trade frameworks across Central and South America and selected Asian markets. Initially, Brazil remained subject to the separate 40% additional tariff, which was also lifted later in the week, fully aligning Brazil with the new tariff-free conditions. 

Brazilian fresh beef exports to the US lost momentum and dropped substantially since the announcement of the 10% reciprocal tariff earlier this year, with the additional 40% tariff adding further pressure.  

Despite that, overall beef shipments increased notably throughout 2025, with China being the key driver. Markets like Mexico, Chile, Egypt and other countries also grew significantly, which helped to narrow the gap created by weaker US volumes. Only this year, Brazil registered record fresh beef export levels three times, in July, September and October. 

Nevertheless, on a YTD basis, the United States still remains the second largest destination for Brazilian beef, reflecting the large volumes shipped earlier in the year. In addition, over the last couple of months, shipments to the US have rebounded, which historically could be expected for this period as shipments aim to enter the US market when the annual quota is renewed. Earlier in 2025, the 65,000 mt quota exempt from the 26.4% tariff for imports from “other countries,” including Brazil, was rapidly filled up within the first three weeks of January.  

Since the “liberation day”, negotiations for Brazilian beef to the United States had been more limited due to the elevated duty burden faced by Brazil (10% reciprocal tariff + 40% additional tariff on Brazil + 26.4% out-of-quota tariff = 76.4%). Following the recent tariff adjustments, expectations of improved negotiating opportunities were renewed, and market participants have already restarted conversations regarding forward shipments. Although it is very likely that upcoming volumes may no longer enter under the quota, discussions have resumed as suppliers reassess conditions under the updated tariff framework. 

Co-authored by: 

Bill Smith
Expana
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