On July 23, USTR officials announced country-specific and first-come, first-served in-quota allocations of the tariff-rate quotas (TRQs) on imported raw cane sugar, refined sugar, and sugar-containing products for 2027 (October 1, 2026 through September 30, 2027).
The TRQs for imported sugar had been talking points in previous discussions with Expana’s Market Reporter, Andraia Torsiello. For example, contract values for sugar in the US increased as market players worried that current stocks may be running thin.
“Sugar spot prices have been steady, while contract prices rose,” said Torsiello. “Now, contracts for cane sugar are more expensive than spot, as some industry players anticipate that there will not be sufficient supplies to carry the market from the current crop to next harvest.”
Previously, the market had been trending with a “wait and see” attitude. Sugar demand at the consumer level has waned due to increasing interest in low-to-no sugar products, health trends, as well as GLP-1 use, reported Expana.
Now, it’s not clear how contracting volume and trade trends will change.
As of July 14, “sellers have shown limited interest in offering spot volumes, while many buyers appear willing to wait rather than chase coverage,” noted Expana.
For example, Brazil’s and Mexico’s TRQs had been anticipated by the industry, two top sugar suppliers to the US. Brazil was allocated 100,000 metric tons raw value (MTRV), while Mexico was allotted 7,258 MTRV.
In Brazil’s case, the US imposed 25% Section 301 tariffs in one order, and a separate 12.5% forced-labor Section 301 duty that appear likely to stack or combine rates for non-exempt goods, like sugar. So, aside from in-quota or out-of-quota sugar-specific tariff rates, sugar imports from Brazil may carry a base rate of 37.5%.
The combined factors are pushing US sugar contracts higher, according to Torsiello.
As of July 1, Mexico’s sugar exports to the US have collapsed from one million MT annually to 400,000 MT based on USDA data. The plunge is attributed to US trade barriers that drastically reduced Mexico’s quota, according to Torsiello.
“Currently, Mexico is facing shrinking access to the US market, one of the country’s most valuable outlets. Meanwhile, US high fructose corn syrup enters the Mexican market duty-free. As a result, Mexico imposed a defensive 156% to 210% tariff on sugar imports last year and is gearing up to launch an antidumping case against US high fructose corn syrup.”
For now, the antidumping threat has not been confirmed and may just be a negotiation tactic, according to Torsiello’s sources.
Mexico’s access to the US sugar market is also being threatened by the non-renewal of the United States-Mexico-Canada Free Trade Agreement (USMCA), despite the parameters of the deal still being in place.
Even still, on June 29, officials from the Port of San Diego announced a new bulk sugar import and storage facility at the Tenth Avenue Marine Terminal, reported Expana about a project that could bring in 280,000 metric tons of raw sugar annually.
As of July 2025, sugar supply became a newsworthy headline when US President Trump took to social media to tell followers that Coca-Cola would use more cane sugar in their hallmark beverage.
“The US imports most of its sugar supplies from Mexico, and major producers like Brazil, reported Expana. Domestic sugar consumption is more than four times higher than that of US cane sugar production…”
So, the market’s being buoyed by protectionist trade barriers like the recently established TRQs for sugar, Section 301 tariffs, and USMCA negotiations. As a result, US sugar contracts are pushing higher than spot prices. Looking ahead, the US Trade Representative will allocate the remaining quantity of 55,993 MTRV prior to October 1, 2026.
Written by Ryan Gallagher
