As of 5pm EST on February 3, President Trump agreed to pause the implementation of the tariffs on Canadian imports for 30 days, according to a tweet by Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. This follows a month-long pause on Mexican import tariffs announced earlier the same day.
US President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico and an additional 10% tariff on imports from China.
Tariffs for Canada and China are in effect as of February 4, while the tariffs on Mexico have been delayed for one month following negotiations with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, who agreed to send 10,000 members of her country’s national guard to the border to address drug trafficking.
[Since this story originally published, President Trump has reportedly paused the tariffs planned for Canada for 30 days following negotiations with Canadian Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau].
Mexico is facing a 25% tariff, while Canada would be charged 25% on its imports to the United States and 10% on its energy products. China faces a 10% additional tariff due to its role in the making and selling of fentanyl, the White House said.
The move sparks renewed concern over higher costs for US consumers and potential retaliatory tariffs from some of the United States’ largest trade partners. Here, we’ve outlined some of the biggest agricultural and food products that flow between the US, Canada and Mexico–and what the impact of these tariffs might mean.
US and Canada Trade
Canada ranks among the United States’ largest agricultural trading partners, accounting for approximately 59% of Canadian agricultural exports and supplying 57% of Canadian agricultural imports in 2022, according to data from USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS).
In 2018, Canada, Mexico, and the US signed the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). While USMCA largely retained NAFTA’s provisions for duty-free and quota-free agricultural trade, it expanded market access for US dairy, poultry, and eggs in Canada.
Top US agricultural imports from Canada
Agricultural products from Canada are now subject to 25% tariffs including grains, animal products, fruit, vegetables, and oilseed products. Below is a breakdown from the latest ERS data:
Top US agricultural exports to Canada
Grains, feed, oilseeds, fruits, vegetables, animal products and live animals make up a large portion of US agricultural exports to Canada. Below is a breakdown from the latest ERS data in 2022:
Canada announces countermeasures
In response to US tariffs on Canadian goods, the Canadian government announced retaliatory measures. Beginning February 4, 2025, a 25% tariff will be imposed on select US imports, including:
- Live poultry and poultry meat
- Dairy products, including milk, cream, yogurt, cheese.
- Eggs, egg yolks, and fertilized eggs for incubation
- Fruits and vegetables such as tomatoes, legumes, citrus (oranges, mandarins, lemons), melons, peaches and apricots.
- Coffee, tea, some sugars
- Chocolate and other food preparations containing cocoa
- Spices and seeds, including ginger, thyme, bay leaves, nutmeg, cinnamon, cloves and vanilla.
- Grains such as rye, wheat, barley, oats and rice.
- Fats and oils, including some seed oils
- Malt, beer made from malt, wine, and other fermented beverages
The complete list can be found here.
US and Mexico Trade
The US is Mexico’s largest agricultural trade partner. The US buys roughly 92% of Mexican exports and supplies roughly 74% of its agricultural imports, per the USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS).
In 2023, Mexico accounted for 16.3 percent of US agricultural exports and 23.3 percent of U.S. agricultural imports (as defined and categorized by the World Trade Organization (WTO)). The USDA described the trade between the two nations as “complementary” as they trade different commodities.
Top US agricultural imports from Mexico
The majority of US imports from Mexico consist of vegetables, fruit, beverages, and distilled spirits. These imports align with Mexico’s capacity for producing alcoholic beverages and its produce growing seasons, which complement the US seasons. Much of the produce that isn’t grown during the winter in the US is grown during that time of year in Mexico.
Mexico is the largest single source of US horticultural imports. In 2023, Mexico supplied 63 percent of U.S. vegetable imports and 47 percent of U.S. fruit and nut imports.
Top US agricultural exports to Mexico
Most US ag exports are grains, oilseeds, meat, or related products. Mexico does not produce enough grains and oilseeds to meet internal demand, so the country’s food and livestock producers import sizable volumes of these commodities to make value-added products such as meat, vegetable oil, and wheat products (primarily for the domestic market), per the ERS.
Diving Deeper into Commodity Categories Most Affected
Grains and oilseeds
Trump’s tariffs have caused increased volatility in the oilseeds and grains markets, Expana’s Zanna Aleksahhina and Kyle Holland reported. Market participants indicated that the most pressing risk in the US is the corn market. Mexico remains the US’ largest buyer of corn, with 16 million MT entering the country every year. Canada also imports approximately 1.5 billion litres of US corn ethanol each year. An Expana contact commented, “Funds are holding a near-record-long position in corn right now and if both Canada and Mexico impose retaliatory tariffs on US corn imports the US could face substantial losses.”
The canola trade has already seen pricing impacts, with Canadian exports to the US, a key market, dropping, per Expana. Beyond canola, the US biodiesel industry, which depends heavily on Canadian canola oil, may be forced to shift to alternative raw materials, likely increasing domestic demand for soybean oil.
Fruits and vegetables
All three countries impacted by the Trump administration’s tariffs are all major suppliers of produce. Canada is a key producer of apples, berries, and dairy products, while Mexico leads the way in avocado, citrus, and tomato exports. China’s exports of processed fruits, nuts, and herbs will also face higher barriers, with the potential to amplify existing trade tensions, as Expana’s Ibi Idoniboye pointed out.
Canada’s quick retaliatory tariff response will lead to tariffs on US-made fruits, nuts, spices, orange juice, and peanut butter. This is a threat to one of the US’ key export markets for produce and items like orange juice, which saw modest growth abroad of late. Now, it faces heightened entry costs in Canada, its second-largest market.
“There is a rising sentiment among industry stakeholders that these escalating trade measures could have far-reaching consequences for US agriculture. The risk of losing market share to competitors from South America and Europe looms large, particularly if global buyers seek alternative suppliers. Producers are faced with the challenge of both managing excess stock and adapting to volatile commodity prices,” Idoniboye wrote.
Feed and Feed Ingredients
Expana’s Heather McGuire Doyle reported that industry leaders in the feed and feed ingredient space warned of potential supply disruptions and price volatility, with the US entirely dependent on vitamin imports and reliant on several foreign-made amino acids.
A vulnerable supply chain remains the biggest concern for feed additive markets as the US is import-dependant for key ingredients. The US imports all vitamins, with China dominating global production. Amino acid markets are also vulnerable, particularly for tryptophan and valine, where the US is a net importer.
Seafood
As Expana reported after the tariffs were first announced by Trump, the seafood industry is expected to face significant headwinds, primarily regarding Canada.
Expana’s Seafoodnews noted that the trade dispute between the US and Canada will have an immediate impact on fresh seafood prices and availability as Canadian imports are deeply embedded into the US supply chain.
Canada and its seafood industry have raised the alarm in recent weeks and months over the potential impacts the tariffs could have. Both lobster and snow crab are among the highest-value species for the country, and adding 25% to its costs is a major concern throughout the supply chain.
Seafoodnews’ John Sackton noted that the hardest hit items will be live lobster, Atlantic salmon and halibut. 2024 import figures from February to April saw that the value for the aforementioned species topped $300 million. This means that importers and sellers will have a $79 million tax bill to continue selling those species over the next three months. Expana’s Foreign Trade Data platform had the species among the top four fresh/live species imported into the US in 2023.
Mexico also slid into the top 10 seafood importers in both value and volume, while the tariff on China could impact seafood processing, as many US companies send raw seafood to China for processing before re-importing it.
As of this writing, Canada’s retaliatory tariffs largely spare seafood items.
Meat and livestock
In November 2024, US beef and veal exports to Canada totaled 19,963 thousand tonnes, up 19.9% month-over-month but down slightly from a year ago.
US cattle exports to Canada totaled 35,371 head, marking a 67.5% jump from the year prior.
Canada is a key supplier of livestock and meat to the United States, with beef processing plants in the northern US receiving Canadian cattle weekly.
In November 2024, US cattle imports from Canada totaled 65,834 head, down 21% year-over-year. However, the year-to-date sum totaled 730,409 head, up 6.9% from 2023.
US beef and veal imports from Canada totaled 89,344 thousand tonnes in November 2024, down 8.7% from the year prior.
Dairy
Mexico is the largest destination for milk powders and cheese from the US. On January 17th, Mexico worked with the European Union on a new trade agreement that would provide duty-free access to EU ag products including dairy products, indicating Mexico’s plan to look elsewhere for dairy products upon implementation of the Trump Tariffs.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada has also taken measures to clap back at Trump tariffs imposing a 25% tariff of his own on many US imports, including various dairy products. Butterfat is at the top of the list of exports from the US to Canada with their imports climbing 21% y-o-y in November 2024. Canda imported 91,000 metric tons of dairy products alone in November 2024.
China continues to be a major destination for many US dairy products as well. The country has consistently been the number one importer of US low-protein whey powder in 2024. Like Mexico and Canada, China has also cited plans of countermeasures on US products.
Written by Nick Wood
