Rising geopolitical tensions, volatile trade policies and uneven economic growth are increasing the risks facing commodity markets and complicating corporate strategy, speakers said at Expana’s Agri-Food Europe event in Amsterdam.
The session, “The Macroeconomic Debate: What Today’s Economy Means for Tomorrow’s Strategy,” featured Stefan Tangermann, Professor Emeritus at the University of Göttingen and former director for trade and agriculture at the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, alongside Tom Bundgaard, Vice President of Price Forecasting at Expana.
Unprecedented complexity
Opening the discussion, Julie Harris, Chief Executive Officer of Expana, said companies are facing unprecedented complexity in strategic decision-making. “The result is complexity, which makes decisions harder, and the cost of getting decisions wrong has rarely been higher,” she said. “It’s not just about data, but insight.”
Tangermann said the relevance of macroeconomic conditions for commodity markets depends largely on time horizons, but policy uncertainty has become a defining feature of the current environment. “It depends on the time horizon,” he said. “In the intermediate term, disruptive policies disrupt markets, which affects everything from strategic plans to tactical decisions.” He argued that global trade has shifted away from a predictable, rules-based system. “We used to live in a rules-based multilateral regime,” he said. “In 2025, the world has switched to a regime based on brutal force, used to pursue unilateral national interests.”
The impact of tariffs
Tangermann cited tariffs introduced under former US President Donald Trump and retaliatory measures by other countries as major sources of disruption. “It’s not just Trump’s policies, but the responses from other countries that have made life difficult,” he said.
He added that tariffs have distorted price formation, particularly in agricultural markets. “Markets are now distorted by tariffs that differ by country of origin,” he said, pointing to price gaps between Brazil and the United States in soybean markets and the re-routing of trade flows through intermediary countries.
Export restrictions and subsidies have also become more volatile, affecting crops such as wheat and maize, he said. “Trade policies can now change rapidly,” Tangermann added.
He said companies must adapt their strategies to different economic timeframes. “One size doesn’t fit all,” he said. “For strategic plans, we should look at medium- and long-term trends. In the short term, we need continuous adjustments. In the medium term, we need people who combine commodity expertise with a feel for political developments.”
Macroeconomics is tied to pricing
Bundgaard said macroeconomic conditions remain closely linked to commodity pricing. “Macroeconomics is tied to pricing — it’s the common pain point,” he said. He pointed to correlations between European Union GDP and overall commodity prices, describing the economy as “a tide” that lifts markets over time. “That’s why the macro economy is important in the longer term,” he said.
Bundgaard said current growth trends remain uncertain, with two main scenarios. “One is that low growth continues. The other is that we’re heading into a recession,” he said. “When we look at the data, it supports the recession scenario.” However, he added that many economists continue to expect prolonged stagnation rather than contraction. “Until we get a deciding factor, we need to be prepared for both,” he said.
During the joint discussion, Bundgaard emphasized the interconnected nature of global economies.
“You can’t have a recession in Europe without one in the US,” he said. “It’s a global thing. The US, Europe and China are all connected.” He added that while China maintains distinct domestic pricing structures, international markets remain highly integrated. “Once you get outside China, it’s a global world,” he said.
“The bottom line is uncertainty”
Tangermann highlighted recent legal and political developments in the United States as another source of uncertainty. He said rulings by the Supreme Court of the United States invalidating certain Trump-era tariffs had led to alternative policy approaches, including reciprocal tariffs. “The bottom line is uncertainty,” Tangermann said. “None of the legal bases fully justify the tariffs that were introduced.”
He added that the European Union is also uncertain about whether to maintain existing agreements with the United States, further complicating market expectations. “Even that creates more uncertainty,” he said.
Speakers agreed that commodity markets are operating in an environment marked by heightened political, legal and economic risk, making long-term planning more difficult. While macroeconomic indicators remain central to strategy, rapid policy shifts and geopolitical tensions are increasingly shaping short- and medium-term decisions.
As Harris noted in her opening remarks, companies are under growing pressure to balance data-driven analysis with political and economic judgment in order to navigate an increasingly complex global landscape.
Written by Fei Thompson
