The California Walnut Board’s April 2026 shipment report, released May 7, shows continued elevated shipment volumes both for the month and season-to-date, with total shipments reaching 142.0 million pounds inshell-equivalent in April—a 25.1% increase over the same month last year. Unless otherwise noted, kernel shipments are converted to inshell-equivalent using a 42.5% crackout ratio, representing an approximate average over recent years. According to market participants, this continued strong pace reflects an improved supply situation and sellers’ efforts to move inventory in a declining price environment, rather than overwhelming demand strength. Industry sources describe the market tone as pressured, reflecting competitive pressures from other origins and typical seasonal market tendencies.
April walnut performance reflects continued supply recovery
April 2026 shipments totaled 142.0 million pounds inshell-equivalent compared to 113.6 million pounds in April 2025. On a month-over-month basis, April volumes declined from the 166.4 million pounds recorded in March 2026, a pullback of 24.4 million pounds or 14.6%. Inshell shipments fell from 30.5 million pounds in March to 26.6 million pounds in April, while kernel shipments declined from 57.8 million pounds to 49.0 million pounds over the same period.
Year-over-year growth was driven primarily by the inshell category, which rose from 5.6 million pounds in April 2025 to 26.6 million pounds in April 2026—a 378.0% increase. Kernel shipments also contributed, rising 6.9% to 49.0 million pounds from 45.9 million pounds in the prior year.
The product mix shift continued in April, with kernel shipments comprising 81.2% of total volume on an inshell-equivalent basis, down from 95.1% in April 2025 and roughly in line with March 2026’s 81.7%, reflecting continued strong inshell movement as handlers work through available inventory.
Expana price assessments for walnut kernels showed a modest divergence in April, with higher-grade products edging slightly higher while lower-grade products saw slight declines. This reflects a degree of selectivity among buyers.
Season-to-date walnut volumes maintain strong growth
Through eight months of the 2025/26 marketing year (September-April), total shipments reached 1.19 billion pounds inshell-equivalent, up 22.9% from 965.6 million pounds shipped through April 2025. Market sources attribute this performance to a supply recovery following last year’s significant production shortfall, which had constrained shipments throughout the 2024-25 season, with sellers adopting a moderately aggressive approach to moving product as additional inventory became available.
Inshell shipments have remained the strongest performer for the season, more than doubling to 279.1 million pounds from 133.8 million pounds in the prior year—a 108.7% increase. Kernel shipments showed more modest growth of 9.1%, reaching 385.8 million pounds compared to 353.5 million pounds through April 2025. The season-to-date product mix shift continued, with kernels representing 76.5% of total shipments on an inshell-equivalent basis, down from 86.1% in the prior year.
Walnut industry position shows continued progress
Based on total receipts of 1.62 billion pounds for the 2025/26 crop (98% conventional, 2% organic), the industry has sold 76.1% of 2025/26 receipts through April, accounting for both shipped volumes and outstanding commitments of 324.4 million pounds inshell-equivalent. When including the modest carryover inventory from last season, the industry has sold 70.1% of total available supply.
The continued strong shipment pace through April, combined with solid commitment levels, reflects what market participants characterize as handlers’ ongoing efforts to move inventory following the prior year’s constrained supply situation. Industry sources suggest the underlying market dynamics continue to reflect supply-side pressures rather than overwhelming demand strength.
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Written by Nick Moss
