Key Takeaways
- Ecuador’s cocoa sector is preparing for El Niño disruption, but the size of any crop loss is still unclear. Anecacao has no official estimate.
- Excess rainfall is the main risk. Heavy rain continuing into early next year could trim output, and the October to April growing window is the one to watch.
- The Relative Oceanic Niño Index has passed the “strong” threshold and is nearing “very strong.”
- Past El Niño years are a rough guide. Production fell in the last one, but temperature and farm practices also played a part. Anecacao and Expana’s fundamentals team disagree on the size of that loss.
- Farm management matters more than farm age. Anecacao is urging farmers to clear drainage channels, reinforce plant nutrition, prune excess shade and control weeds.
- Ecuador’s output now rivals Ghana’s, so its weather could affect export availability and sentiment in an already volatile cocoa market.
Ecuador’s cocoa sector is preparing for possible El Niño disruption ahead of the 2026/27 season, although the scale of any production hit remains uncertain, according to data from Anecacao officials, the National Association of Exporters and Industrialists of Ecuadorian cocoa.
So, the exporters’ association is working with Ecuadorian farmers to mitigate the potential crop loss from increased rainfall anticipated during the strong El Niño event. With Ecuador entering a critical weather window ahead of peak El Niño conditions, market participants are watching closely for excess rainfall that could trim cocoa production by 40,000 to 50,000 metric tons (MT) if wet conditions persist into early 2027.
Before accounting for El Niño crop loss, 626,000 metric tons (MT) of cocoa is forecast to be exported in 2026/27, provided growing conditions remain supportive, according to Anecacao Executive Director, Merlyn Casanova Loor.
“It is still too early to quantify [El Niño] effects on production,” said Loor in an interview with Expana.
It “will depend on the intensity, duration, and distribution of rainfall across the country’s different producing regions.”
Anecacao’s team does not have an official estimate to quantify the national crop loss attributable to the El Niño phenomenon. However, a 28,000 MT export reduction was observed for the 2015/16 El Niño year, according to Anecacao.
Historical data shows crop production fell 11% in the 2015/16 cacao year to 232,825 MT from 261,054 MT a year earlier, according to Anecacao data. Still, production rebounded 31% in 2016/17 to 304,612 MT. However, the production fluctuation(s) cannot be tied exclusively to El Niño because temperature variation and farm-level practices also influence output.
As of October 2026, the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) has reached 1.69°C, this has passed the “strong” threshold and is approaching the final official threshold, “very strong” at 2.0°C, according to Expana’s Weather & Crop Researcher, James Tyler. Looking back, the equivalent value for 2015 September RONI was 1.54°C —eventually reaching a periodic high of 2.25°C by January 2016. At that time, this pattern brought with it a sharp rise in rainfall—impacting the Ecuadorian cocoa crop.
Worth mentioning: A similar pattern occurred in 2023/24 but brought with it a drought—thus minimizing flooding impact on cocoa production during that period.
For Latin America, excess rainfall is the main concern during an El Niño pattern, particularly in flood-prone areas and small farm operations, which make up most of the country’s producers.
In recent years, Ecuador has become a global cocoa supplier, with output rivaling that of the second largest cocoa producing nation, Ghana in West Africa.
Anecacao Works with Farmers
Crop resilience depends on farm management: Drainage, pruning, phytosanitary control, and general maintenance are rainfall mitigation methods that can influence a cocoa farm’s weather tolerance.
“A farm’s capacity to cope with periods of heavy rainfall depends more on its management practices than on its age,” said Loor. “While newer plantations are generally established with more accurate planting densities and better preventive measures to manage disease risks, their true resilience will ultimately be tested by the actual volume of rainfall. Consequently, even older farms can demonstrate a high capacity for climate adaptation provided they maintain proper technical management.”
To limit rainfall damage, Anecacao’s team issued guidance to farmers that involve cleaning drainage channels, reinforcing plant nutrition, pruning excess shade, and controlling weeds.
So, Ecuador’s weather outlook could influence both export availability and sentiment in the greater cocoa market which in recent years has been characterized by the volatile price swings seen on New York and London’s terminal markets.
More Weather Background
In the Southern hemisphere, the region’s Summer season starts during the “New Year;” a time when El Niño is expected to be at its peak. So, El Niño is expected to be at its peak in Q4 2026 and Q1 2027, which coincides with main crop development in southern hemisphere countries, according to Expana’s Senior Manager of Cocoa Analysis, Andrew Moriarty.
In Latin America, Ecuador, Peru, and Colombia often turn wetter—a pattern that can threaten cocoa and coffee crops while disrupting transport, reported Expana.
“Ecuador is increasingly important to the cocoa market,” said Expana’s Director of Fundamental Analysis, Philip Manamel during a recent webinar (watch on demand here). “And during previous ‘very strong’ El Niños, we have seen very heavy rainfall at the turn of the year, which has the potential to be detrimental to crops there.”
For example, over the last five years, Ecuador’s cocoa production climbed 67%, reported Expana in an article that cited Anecacao statistics.
However, Expana’s fundamentals team places Ecuadorian production growth closer to 57% over the last five years, according to Moriarty.
Output took a 0.9% step back in 2023/24, the most recent El Niño year, according to previously cited Anecacao statistics that quantified production loss due to El Niño conditions. For comparison, Expana’s fundamentals team places that loss closer to 5%, according to Moriarty.
However, stronger El Niño conditions, which are expected leading up to 2027, could impact the crop output up to 20-30%, estimated Loor who noted that much was still uncertain.
October 2026 will be a pivotal time for crop conditions, as any excess rain before the rainy season will compound potential for crop loss, according to Expana’s team.
“We could see potential for losses of 40-50K MT if these rainy conditions continue into early 2027,” said Moriarty. “Except for the 2023/24 drought, El Niño conditions usually bring excess rain during that key growing period from October to April…”
Caption Figure 1: Monthly precipitation across Ecuadorian provinces Los Rios, Guayas and Manabi, which account for the majority of Ecuador’s cocoa production. Included are the current El Niño (2026/27), the last El Niño (2023/24) which reached “strong” status, and the previous two “very strong” El Niño events (1997/98 and 2015/16), along with the 30-year historical average. Source: Open-Meteo*
*Weather data in the Expana platform is provided by Open-Meteo.com and is derived from the models of national and international meteorological services, including the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). This service is based on data and products of ECMWF. Each source retains all intellectual property rights and copyright in its data. The data is used under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license (CC BY 4.0), https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. Expana has modified the data, including by interpolation, aggregation, unit conversion and combination with Expana data. No source has endorsed or approved Expana, the Expana platform, or these modifications. Neither Open-Meteo nor any source accepts any liability for any error or omission in the data, their availability, or for any loss or damage arising from their use.
Image source: Adobe
Written by Ryan Gallagher
