El Niño is moving back onto the market’s radar.
NOAA’s ENSO outlook points to El Niño conditions developing in the coming months and potentially lasting into the Northern Hemisphere winter. The World Meteorological Organization has also flagged a high likelihood of El Niño conditions through the second half of 2026, with implications for global temperatures, rainfall patterns, crop development, and trade flows.
There is still uncertainty around how strong this event could become. Some forecasts point to a moderate-to-strong El Niño, while others suggest the risk of a much stronger event. Current sea surface temperature trends are already being compared with previous major El Niño years, including 1997/98 and 2015/16.
For commodity markets, the question is not just whether El Niño develops. It is where the weather impact lands first, how quickly it feeds into production risk, and which supply chains are most exposed.
Join Expana’s live session on 25 June at 11 AM EDT / 4 PM BST, where Expana’s specialists will give a clear read on the latest El Niño signal, where forecasts agree and differ, and what this could mean for key agricultural commodities, logistics routes, and cost pressures.
The session will start with the climate outlook, then move into regional weather risks and the commodities most likely to feel the impact.
What we’ll cover
- How strong could this El Niño become?
- A look at the latest sea surface temperature data, the main forecast models, and why agencies are not fully aligned on the potential strength of the event.
- Lessons from previous El Niño years
- How the current set-up compares with major events such as 1997/98 and 2015/16, and what those years can ,and cannot, tell us about the months ahead.
- Regional weather risks
How El Niño typically changes rainfall, temperature, storm activity, and river levels, and why the timing of those shifts matters for commodity markets.
Can’t join? Register and we’ll share the recording after the briefing.
Written by Expana
Speakers
Philip Manamel
Director - Fundamental Analysis, Expana
Expana
James Tyler
Weather And Crop Researcher
Expana
Thess Mostoles
Editor
Expana
