EU Apple Sector May be “Reaching Limits” amid Climate-Driven Crop Loss

The World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) released its 2026/27 apple season forecast at the Prognosfruit Conference in Constance, Germany on 6 August 2026. WAPA expects EU apple production to come in at 9.5 million metric tons (MT), down 15.6% year over year (YOY) and 14.3% below the three-year average. If WAPA’s forecast is realized, it would stand as the EU’s lowest production level since 2017.

Weather has been the key driver, with WAPA describing 2026 climatic conditions as a “perfect storm”. Deep frosts from February through to late April were followed by prolonged heatwaves, drought, hailstorms, and heavy rain. Some production regions were still experiencing adverse conditions at the time of the conference, meaning the final damage to yields may not yet be fully captured in the forecast.

The country-level data reveals how unevenly the damage has fallen. Poland, the EU’s largest apple producer by a considerable margin, is forecast at 2.67 million MT, down by 29.9% YOY and 27.1% below its three-year average. In absolute terms, Poland’s shortfall alone accounts for roughly 65% of the entire EU production decline. France is also significantly affected, down 24.2% to 1.16 million MT. Austria (–35%), Belgium (–25.1%), and Czechia (–54.8%) are among the hardest hit in percentage terms, though their smaller volumes limit their impact on the EU total. Hungary’s crop of 135,000 MT is down 20.6% YOY and sits 61.4% below its three-year average, suggesting a region under sustained pressure.

Italy, the second-largest producer, has fared comparatively well, declining just 2.2% to 2.27 million MT and remaining broadly in line with its recent average. Germany is down 10.9% but stays above its three-year average. The clearest bright spots are in the Mediterranean: Greece is up 53.6% YOY to 291,000 MT and Spain has grown 7.5% to 525,000 MT, both indicating that the frost and drought damage was concentrated further north and east.

In addition, Turkey is expected to record a major YOY rebound, with market sources predicting high yields. Early estimates suggest an increase of as much as 104% YOY, after severe frost damage heavily curtailed production in 2025. Market players are optimistic about Turkey’s outlook, anticipating a good season and lower prices than last year.

Expana Benchmark Prices (EBP) for Apple concentrate medium acid FCA Europe, origin Poland [Expana code: FJ05] stood at €1,500/MT on July 31 (latest data), unchanged month over month (MOM). Market sources reported a quiet market, with participants awaiting a clearer outlook for the 2026/27 season.

WAPA General Secretary Philippe Binard warned that the sector may be “reaching the limits of what current tools and practices can absorb,” citing climate events, rising costs, and a shrinking toolkit for protecting yields and quality.

For more information on Expana’s apple market coverage, click here.