US Pistachio May Shipments Hit Six-Year High Amid Supply Caution

The Administrative Committee for Pistachios (ACP) released its latest shipment report covering activity through May 31, 2026. Pistachios follow a natural production cycle alternating between high-yield on-years and lower-yield off-years; 2025/26 is an on-year. All volumes are reported on an inshell equivalent basis, with kernel pounds converted using a kernel-to-inshell ratio of 0.45 (meaning kernel weights are multiplied by approximately 2.2x to equal inshell equivalent). Comparative figures reference year over year (YOY) change, the prior on-year (2023/24), and the five-year average for the 2020/21–2024/25 crop years. 

May pistachio shipments 

May 2026 shipments totaled 97.1 million pounds, the highest May total in the six-year comparison dataset and a counter-seasonal reversal from the deceleration observed in April. Month over month (MOM), total shipments increased 21.3% from April’s 80.1 million pounds — an atypical pattern for late spring, driven almost entirely by an acceleration in export activity. Year over year, total shipments advanced 14.1% and tracked 18.1% above the five-year average. 

The export channel provided the month’s outperformance, posting 70.3 million pounds — up 38.7% month-over-month, 25.7% YOY, 32.7% above the five-year average, and 29.2% above the prior on-year. Domestic shipments declined to 26.8 million pounds, down 8.9% month-over-month and 8.1% YOY, though the monthly figure remained broadly aligned with the five-year average (−1.2%), suggesting the domestic channel performed in line with seasonal norms rather than signaling any demand deterioration. 

Total: 97.1 million pounds (+21.3% month-over-month, +14.1% YOY, +18.1% vs five-year avg, +15.2% vs 2023/24) 
Domestic: 26.8 million pounds (−8.9% month-over-month, −8.1% YOY, −1.2% vs five-year avg, −10.2% vs 2023/24) 
Export: 70.3 million pounds (+38.7% month-over-month, +25.7% YOY, +32.7% vs five-year avg, +29.2% vs 2023/24) 

 

Pistachio crop year-to-date shipments (September through May) 

Through nine months of the 2025/26 crop year, cumulative shipments crossed the one-billion-pound mark for the first time this crop year, totaling 1,025.4 million pounds — joining 2023/24 as the only crop years in the six-year dataset to surpass that threshold through May. This represents an 18.3% increase YOY and a 26.2% gain over the five-year average, with export markets continuing to lead the outperformance at 23.7% growth YOY while domestic shipments posted 5.3% gains. The year-to-date export total of 757.7 million pounds runs 34.9% above the five-year average through this stage of the crop year. 

Total: 1,025.4 million pounds (+18.3% YOY, +26.2% vs five-year avg, −5.1% vs 2023/24) 
Domestic: 267.7 million pounds (+5.3% YOY, +6.9% vs five-year avg, +2.6% vs 2023/24) 
Export: 757.7 million pounds (+23.7% YOY, +34.9% vs five-year avg, −7.5% vs 2023/24) 

 

The year-to-date gap relative to the prior on-year (2023/24) narrowed from −6.8% through April to −5.1% through May, as May’s export outperformance partially closed the cumulative shortfall. Industry sources broadly attribute the persisting gap to the 2023/24 baseline representing a historically elevated export cycle rather than any structural underperformance in the current year. Notably, the 2025/26 domestic YTD figure has moved ahead of 2023/24 levels (+2.6%) for the first time this crop year, reinforcing that domestic demand conditions remain constructive. 

Supply perspective 

Crop receipts remained unchanged at 1.59 billion pounds through May, confirming that harvest intake is complete at what appears to be a record level for the crop year. 

Adjusted inventory — the pre-shipment metric capturing the total industry supply position after processing adjustments and shrinkage — rose to approximately 1,514.5 million pounds (inshell equivalent), up 26.5 million pounds (+1.8% MOM) from April’s 1,488.0 million pounds. The month-over-month increase reflects significant shelling activity during May (the conversion of inshell product into kernel form) rather than any anomaly in the supply accounting: inshell-form components (open inshell, closed shell, and shelling stock) declined by a combined 26.2 million pounds ISE, while the kernel component rose by 52.7 million pounds ISE as handlers accelerated conversion of inshell product into kernel form. On a year-over-year basis, adjusted inventory ran 243.2 million pounds (+19.1%) above the May 2024/25 level, consistent with the scale of the 2025/26 on-year harvest relative to the prior off-year crop. 

Estimated marketable inventory — the figure most directly reflective of accessible, shippable supply — finished May near 489.1 million pounds (inshell equivalent), down approximately 70.6 million pounds (−12.6% MOM) from April’s 559.7 million pounds. On a year-over-year basis, marketable inventory stood 84.5 million pounds (+20.9%) above the May 2024/25 level of 404.6 million pounds, reflecting the substantial available supply the current crop year carries into its final three months. 

With June through August remaining in the 2025/26 crop year, the 489.1-million-pound marketable inventory balance is the central variable shaping carryout projections. The carryout level entering 2026/27 carries particular significance given the anticipated supply reduction in what will be an off-year cycle, and industry participants have increasingly referenced this dynamic in near-term pricing and supply planning discussions. 

Pistachio market outlook 

Industry sources characterize underlying demand conditions as broadly strong, with May’s export performance providing a notable reinforcement of that view. The crop year’s 18.3% year-over-year shipment gain through nine months — led by a 23.7% export advance — supports continued constructive sentiment heading into the final quarter of the crop year. The domestic channel’s modest May softness is not viewed as a demand signal given its alignment with the five-year seasonal average. 

Market participants continue to emphasize that monthly shipment variations reflect contract timing, supply planning, and logistical execution rather than fundamental demand shifts, and May’s sharp MOM export acceleration is consistent with that framing. The export channel’s sustained outperformance relative to historical averages across virtually every month of the crop year is widely viewed by market participants as the defining shipment story of 2025/26, with cumulative totals through May ranking second only to the historically elevated 2023/24 on-year cycle. 

Middle East dynamics continue to factor into export routing and near-term demand planning. The logistical disruptions that weighed on April’s export figure appear to have resolved or been absorbed into alternative routing patterns, consistent with the strong rebound in May export volumes. Additionally, market participants note that shipments to China saw a significant year-over-year increase during the period, with some sources suggesting that a normalization of direct trade flows between the US and China could provide a meaningful additional layer of export demand in the months ahead. 

Attention is increasingly turning to new-crop development for 2026/27. Industry estimates currently point toward an approximate 200 million pound carryover from 2025/26 — a figure that, if realized, would represent a meaningful but manageable bridge into what is widely expected to be a significantly tighter off-year supply environment. Some market sources suggest the 2026 California pistachio crop may total approximately 50% of the record 2025 harvest, though estimates remain highly preliminary at this stage of the growing season. 

Against this backdrop, market liquidity has been described as very limited in recent weeks following the broad release of new-crop production estimates. Market participants report that sellers have grown increasingly cautious with inventory, with many implementing deliberate supply planning and allocation strategies rather than pursuing open-market sales at current pace. This behavioral shift reflects the growing awareness among market participants that the volume carried into 2026/27 will directly influence early-season pricing and supply availability in the off-year cycle — a dynamic market participants are actively incorporating into carryout management and supply planning rather than treating as a simple function of demand execution. 

Industry sources broadly view the second-highest crop-year shipment pace on record, the constrained global supply backdrop, and the structural demand environment as supportive through the crop-year close. With 2025/26 entering its final stretch, attention will focus on monthly shipment execution, new-crop field developments, and the eventual carryout figure as the key variables defining the transition into 2026/27.