The Canadian Spring lobster season is set to begin, with fishermen scheduled to set traps on April 19 and fishing to commence the following Monday. Early indicators point to a strong start, buoyed by recent biomass assessments suggesting landings could match—or even surpass—last spring’s solid production. Yet, this promising outlook unfolds against a backdrop of economic and trade uncertainty, tempering optimism across global markets.
At the center of the disruption is China, a critical buyer of live lobster, which recently imposed a 25% tariff on Canadian imports, alongside a steep 125% duty on U.S. imports. These trade actions have disrupted traditional export channels and added new layers of risk for suppliers navigating an already price-sensitive Chinese market. Compounding matters, China’s broader economic slowdown and cautious consumer sentiment continue to cloud demand projections heading into the summer. Without renewed negotiations with China, the ongoing U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports could significantly impact China’s economy.
Meanwhile, the spring harvest brings a rapid ramp-up in landings, as multiple fishing zones open in quick succession. This surge in production must be efficiently absorbed, making uninterrupted market access vital. U.S. buyers typically play a key role during this stretch, securing product for immediate use while processors capitalize on favorable spring pricing to rebuild frozen inventories. Canadian live lobster imports into the U.S. generally peak between May and June, coinciding with the height of seasonal production and demand.
In addition to serving the live and processing markets, a portion of the catch is typically stored or tubbed for future demand. However, this strategy carries added risk—particularly this season—as uncertainty looms over China’s appetite for live lobster in the wake of new tariffs. As a result, more product may enter the market earlier than usual, adding to available volume during peak production weeks.
It’s also worth noting that following a difficult fall season, many Canadian shippers experienced high mortality rates and significant losses. Coupled with limited access to credit and increased financial scrutiny from banks, many are now hesitant to overextend in such a volatile and unpredictable market. With fewer shippers opting to hold inventory for future sales, this added supply is likely to ease availability and place downward pressure on short-term pricing.
Since the implementation of the latest Chinese tariff on U.S. lobster, downward price pressure has been observed on larger-sized selects—the preferred size for the Chinese market. U.S. exports of live lobster to China have rebounded in recent years following the steep decline triggered by the initial round of retaliatory tariffs imposed by the Trump administration in 2018. After several years of disrupted trade, the market gradually recovered as tariffs were eased and trade relationships stabilized. In 2024, U.S. live lobster exports to China totalled 18.1 million pounds—a significant figure that underscores the market’s renewed strength and China’s importance as a key export destination. However, the reintroduction of tariffs in 2025 now threatens to reverse that progress, casting uncertainty over future demand. During the U.S. absence, Canada had stepped in to fill the void. In 2023, Canada exported approximately 24,480 metric tonnes, or 53.9 million pounds, of live lobster to China. This represented a 6% increase in volume y-o-y making China the largest market for Canadian live lobster exports that year.
As the Canadian spring season gets underway, the industry faces a mix of optimism and caution. Strong early indicators for landings provide a solid foundation, but shifting trade dynamics, particularly with China, are creating new headwinds. With more product expected to enter the market earlier and uncertainty surrounding future export demand, market participants will be closely watching how pricing, inventory strategies, and global buying behavior evolve in the weeks ahead.
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Written by Liz Cuozzo
