Favorable weather conditions and an expansion of the planted area has led to predictions of the largest corn harvest in history for the 2024/2025 season, according to market players. Higher yields were expected to strengthen the country’s position in the global market. However, lower stocks and significant increases in domestic demand have the potential to curb this possible increase in market share, sources say. Market sources told Expana that Brazil’s share of the global corn export market is expected to decline going into the 2025/2026 season, despite higher yield and production forecasts.
Brazil’s national supply company (CONAB) estimate total corn production at 124.7 million mt, up by 8.5% from last year (2024/2025). CONAB predicts that the Safrinha crop will account for 98 million mt, nearly 80% of the total harvest. The USDA’s prediction for the same marketing year is slightly more optimistic at 126 million mt. Market players attribute the higher production outlook to a larger sowing area — now at 22.3 million hectares, up 4% from the previous season — and favorable weather conditions. Heavy rain earlier in the season aided the crops and improved yield prospects, sources said. For the 2025/2026 marketing year, the USDA is forecasting further growth, with total corn production expected to reach 130 million mt, a record projection for Brazil.
Market participants have suggested that despite record production figures, Brazil’s share in the global export market for corn is still potentially to decline in the 2025/2026 season. Analysts attribute this to a strong increase in domestic demand. This demand is primarily for feed and ethanol, in which both sectors are seeing rapid growth rates. Market participants say that consistent and sustainable profit margins are driving increased use of corn for ethanol production in Brazil. According to the Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association (UNICA), an estimated 8.25 billion liters is to be produced in 2024-2025 (30.7% increase from last harvest), and for the 2025/2026 season, 10 billion liters is forecasted. Market players are suggesting that ethanol could be a key feature of the Brazilian market, with 25 active plants currently operating and another 15 reportedly under construction.
As well as an increasing demand for corn ethanol, market participants are observing increasing demand for corn to be used in domestic feed, as production rises. According to a USDA foreign agricultural services forecast, Brazil’s feed production is projected to grow by 2.3% in 2025. In the 2023/2024 season, total feed production totaled 96.4 million mt. Corn remains the top ingredient for poultry feed, followed by soybean meal. Market sources told Expana that although feed production is increasing, there are still many feed mills that are not operating at full capacity. Considering that the feed sector in Brazil has untapped potential, market participants believe there is a good chance that the domestic feed sector will continue to grow, which can further deplete Brazil’s exportable supply in the 2025/2026 season.
Developments in ethanol and feed production could remove significant amounts of corn from the global export market, decreasing Brazil’s total share, industry insiders said. As a top corn exporting nation, there is potential that further reductions in exportable supply could lend support to prices in the near term, sources said. Sources expect black sea corn to offer strong price competition starting in September. Depending on the extent of the competition, this could further lower Brazil’s export share. Market players, citing increased forecast figures for 2025/2026, expect black sea and US corn exports to offset the potential price support that could arise from Brazil’s depleting exportable surplus.
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Written by Ben Barritt
