Throughout March 2026, European tomato prices surged amid adverse weather that severely constrained tomato supply. Spain was particularly affected as demand far exceeded availability. Prices have since softened as the supply outlook has improved, but challenges remain for key regional producers.
Spanish supply dropped significantly in the first quarter of 2026 due to heavy rains. This follows extreme heat in mid-2025, which led to crop losses in the sector.
Spain’s key producing regions were hit by severe flooding following the arrival of Storm Marta in February. As reported by FreshPlaza, very high levels of rainfall in January and February drove an increase in fungal diseases and pests. In addition, storm events have damaged crops, and very low temperatures in recent months have inhibited plant growth, reducing stocks. As a result, prices for Spanish round tomatoes stood at €3.36/kg on April 1 (latest data), up by 66.3% month-over-month and 154.6% year-over-year. Reports suggest that prices started declining towards the end of April but remain elevated.
Although Morocco’s standing as a major tomato producer continues to increase, climate challenges are a persistent and significant issue. Exports reached record highs in the 2024/25 season, hitting 745,000 metric tons (MT), according to data reported by FreshPlaza, up 80% over the decade. However, volumes are expected to decrease in the 2025/26 season, as the sector faces water scarcity issues, as well as labor shortages and high input costs.
A joint report published by the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization and the World Meteorological Organization titled “Extreme Heat and Agriculture”, highlighted Morocco’s challenges, stating, “Morocco’s agricultural sector, which contributes around 10% to the national GDP, is dominated by rainfed cultivation, and is highly vulnerable to climate extremes”. The report emphasized the severe effects of drought conditions in recent years, including “critical shortages for drinking water and forced widespread restrictions on irrigation, which had knock-on effects in terms of crop losses”. However, tomato prices have reportedly started declining in recent weeks. Some participants attribute the price drop to government-imposed export bans, while others dispute this.
Italy and France have also recorded price drops, following elevated levels earlier in the month. While France faced its own supply reduction, the production challenges affecting Spain and Morocco gave French producers a competitive advantage, allowing them to command higher prices. Market sources report that supply issues have started to ease in France and Italy, softening prices.
Across Europe, markets are broadly considered to be stabilizing following the recent tight supply and sharp price increases. However, increasingly adverse and erratic weather events present an ongoing challenge that weighs on market sentiment, with some market sources suggesting that extreme weather is the new norm, adding that “adaptation is no longer optional”.
Image source: Adobe
Written by Craig Elliott
