As the onset of the potato harvest draws closer, industry players wait to see the impact of recent hot weather on crop yields.

Although growing conditions in Scotland have been optimal, and all signs currently point to average or above-average yields, the outlook for England is mixed. Following high temperatures since April, the outcome for English growers is likely to be determined by their ability to irrigate throughout the persistent hot and dry conditions, according to market sources.

If crop yields, and indeed crop quality, are impeded, this could temper earlier industry expectations of a significant supply surplus in the market, sources state.

Potato prices in the UK and Europe have tumbled in recent months, amid high stock levels held by growers, reduced consumption and limited free-buy purchasing, as many buyers are covered by contract. Prices stand in stark contrast to year-ago figures, when prices rocketed on the back of tight supply. Expana Benchmark Prices (EBP) for English white packing potatoes [Expana code: POWP] stood at £90/metric tonne (mt) as at July 15, down by 67% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) and 88% year-on-year (y-o-y). The EBP for Dutch processing potatoes [Expana code: PO29] was €6/100 kg, down by 70% q-o-q and 90% y-o-y.

Sources in Europe have noted deterioration in crop quality in recent weeks, particularly in areas with lower rainfall. In addition, some crops were planted particularly early, meaning that they are now ageing.

However, the planting area is also a factor. Although data on UK planted area for 2025 is currently unavailable, industry analysis shows that potato area for all EU member states increased by 5.5% y-o-y, which provides potential for a larger harvest.

While market participants are cautious to make predictions before harvesting is complete, some anticipate that potato supply will continue to be high, one way or another. It remains to be seen if insufficient rainfall will indeed have a significant impact on supply levels and, therefore, prices.

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