Expana has heard that some farmers in Ukraine have begun to sell their sunflower seed crop since, according to market players, estimates for the new crop (2025/26), were at circa 15 million mt.
If this is realized, it would be an increase of around 2 million mt as compared to 2024/25. However, the weather in Ukraine has been hot and dry for a considerable amount of time, with soil moisture particularly low as compared to last year. Due to this, market players have tentatively estimated new crop production at circa 11.5 million mt, a decline vis a vis 2024/25 of around 1.5 million mt. Sources said that if dryness continues further downward revisions are ‘inevitable’.
If volumes of this level are realized come harvest in October-November-December, market players said it would “send shockwaves through the market, since everyone is ‘banking’ on a large increase of supply to offset what has been a season of tightness.” Moreover, industry insiders added that if production declines are confirmed, players may seek to purchase larger volumes of sunflower oil, potentially adding upward price pressure to the market.
A ‘rush’ for sunflower oil supplies is adding to concerns. However, it is unclear how much supply may be readily available, sources say. This is because many crushers have already turned away from sunflower seeds owing to poor margins for crushing which are still negative, albeit slightly less than month at negative $20/mt or so.
It remains to be seen what uptake of sunflower seeds crushers take, as they “are currently crushing other materials [soybean and rapeseed], and it’s not easy nor quick to switch back into sunflower,” a trader said.
Sources have been concerned for several weeks that a lack of crushing could lead to severe limitations of sunflower oil on the market, which they say has already happened to some degree. If this is the case, it may mean that when players are ‘forced’ to buy, due to limited pipelines and stock, there may be little on the market to purchase.
Akin to Ukraine, Russia’s sunflower seed production estimates for 2025/26 have been slashed in market player estimates; some were in the 15.8 million mt to 17.5 million mt range, which would be an increase on the top end of circa 600,000 mt or a decline of around 1.1 million mt on the low end as compared to the 2024/25 season. Industry insiders pointed out that the 19 million mt production figures some were talking about has now ‘vanished’.
It’s worth noting that the European Union (EU) is also experiencing severe drought conditions, with spring 2025 ranking among the driest on record. According to the latest report from Monitoring Agricultural Resources (MARS), rainfall across the region has dropped to just 0–50% of typical seasonal levels. The USDA currently estimates the EU sunflower crop at 10 million mt. However, market players have told Expana that this figure is very optimistic and will need to be revised lower with the consensus currently sitting at around 9 million mt. Like Ukraine and Russia, market players commented that if poor weather continued to impact the EU crop, production estimates could be lowered further, potentially adding upward price pressure to the sunflower complex and potentially the vegetable oil complex at large.
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Written by Kyle Holland
