Restaurant menus, fast-food chains, and grocery stores are all feeling the effects of a chicken breast price increase that defies typical seasonal trends. Quotations for jumbo boneless breast meat began the year hovering around the 5-year average but have steadily climbed above that benchmark since June. By Q3 2024, prices were already outpacing the 5-year average by 22.8%, and in Q4, they surged to a 31.1% increase—a notable shift that indicates growing consumer and industry interest in chicken.
Record Production Meets Elevated Demand
Traditionally, robust supply is expected to hold prices in check. Yet despite a record high of 39.5 billion pounds of ready-to-cook chicken produced year-to-date, jumbo boneless breast prices continue to trend upward. Production in Q1, Q2, and Q3 2024 surpassed the 5-year average by 3.5%, 4.2%, and 3.6%, respectively. October alone exceeded the 5-year average by 9.1%.
These figures suggest that while chicken supplies are abundant, demand is the principal driver of the chicken breast price increase. Curiously, retail data shows that fresh chicken breast meat distribution in 2024 remains below the 3-year average, implying that fast-food and restaurant sales are picking up the slack. Many operators appear to be pivoting to chicken as a cost-efficient protein that satisfies consumer preferences, a trend that becomes clear when comparing chicken to alternative proteins.
Cost-Effective Protein Choice
So why exactly is chicken in the spotlight? Much has to do with its relative affordability:
- 85% Lean Fresh Domestic Boneless Beef vs. Jumbo Breast: The price gap between these two items grew 86.5% larger than the 5-year average difference this year.
- Conventional Jumbo White Shell Eggs vs. Jumbo Breast: The gap between eggs and chicken widened 303.4% compared to the 5-year average.
For restaurants aiming to keep menu prices attractive without slashing profitability, chicken remains a compelling choice. While jumbo boneless breast meat prices are higher than usual for this time of year, they still lag behind other proteins like beef and eggs in terms of cost.
Fast-Food Chains Embrace Chicken
Higher contract volumes for jumbo boneless chicken items are increasingly common among fast-food chains—many of which are diversifying offerings through chicken nuggets, boneless wings, and unique sandwich creations. Market participants confirm that chicken’s lower cost relative to other proteins makes it an appealing centerpiece for new product launches and menu promotions.
With chicken breast price increase continuing into Q4 and possibly beyond, industry watchers expect both supply and demand to remain strong. Operators that position themselves to capitalize on chicken’s affordability are better equipped to balance customer satisfaction, brand innovation, and profit margins.
Key Takeaways for Stakeholders
- Elevated yet Accessible: Although prices for jumbo boneless breast meat are unseasonably high, they remain lower than many competing proteins.
- Growing Foodservice Demand: A dip in grocery store distribution highlights the surge in restaurant and fast-food usage, sustaining the chicken breast price increase.
- Strategic Procurement: Both retailers and foodservice operators should track price and supply data closely to secure deals when opportunities arise.
- Consumer Appeal: Chicken remains a top performer in an environment where diners seek affordability and health-conscious protein choices.
How We Help Poultry Buyers Thrive in a Shifting Chicken Market
Our specialized data and market intelligence services provide real-time insights into poultry trends, protein supply, and pricing fluctuations. Whether you need to forecast potential cost changes for your supply chain or strategically secure high-volume contracts, our analytics empower you to make timely, data-driven decisions.
For more information about how our agriculture, protein, and commodity data solutions can help you navigate this chicken breast price increase, contact us today. We’re here to ensure you stay ahead of market shifts and consumer demands in the dynamic protein sector.
Written by Noah Thomas
