A series of intense heatwaves swept through parts of Europe in June, prompting concerns over potential crop losses and declining yields, says the Expana Global Weather Report – June 2025, which provides a country-by-country overview.
Figure 1. Maximum temperature anomaly for Europe during June 2025. Expana and The Weather Company.
Spain
James Tyler, Weather and Crop Researcher, and Erin Knight, Research Analyst, Expana reported that Spain experienced significantly warmer-than-average conditions in June, with some areas recording temperatures up to 5°C above normal. Although such heat can hinder the development of fruits and vegetables—leading to smaller, fewer, and lower-quality produce, reports of heat stress in Spanish crops have so far been limited. According to the European Commission (EC), the hot weather accelerated crop development and supported the sowing of crops previously delayed by adverse spring conditions.
And, while Spain should reap a bumper grains crop, the warm temperatures are likely to reduce sunflower production in Andalusia where plantings had been delayed by spring downpours, according to Aurélien Blary, Crop Analyst, Expana.
Italy
Italy also saw elevated temperatures, with June averaging over 4°C warmer than usual. The excessive heat may result in premature fruit drop for key crops such as hazelnuts, lemons, and oranges. Olive trees could yield oil with reduced content, and spinach growth may slow, diminishing overall harvest volumes, said Tyler and Knight. Italy is the world’s second-largest exporter of hazelnuts.
Hungary
Hungary recorded rainfall levels 80% below historical averages in June, compounding the effects of above-average heat and resulting in widespread dry soil and water stress. According to Tyler and Knight, the conditions negatively impacted crop development, particularly for corn and sunflower, both of which have seen yield forecasts revised downward by the EC. Still, expected yields remain above the five-year average. In addition, Hungarian horseradish production may also be compromised, raising concerns ahead of the October harvest.
France
France experienced temperatures about 4°C above the seasonal norm in June. In the report, Tyler and Knight show that while southern regions faced below-average rainfall, resulting in hindered grain and pod filling, improved soil moisture in the north supported crop health. As a result, forecasts for most grain and oilseed yields were revised upward and remain above the five-year average. However, the outlook for potatoes and sugar beet was adjusted downward, though still above multi-year norms. Pea yields, meanwhile, are still forecast below the five-year average, and there are concerns that sustained heat in July could scorch grape crops. Heavy hailstorms have also reportedly caused damage in some vineyards, adding to uncertainty for the 2025 wine vintage.
Belgium
Belgium reported June temperatures over 3°C above average, creating risks for sugar beet development. Warmer conditions may lead to lower sugar content in the upcoming September harvest, highlight Tyler and Knight. The EC revised Belgium’s sugar beet yield forecast downward, although yields are still expected to surpass the five-year average. With several months of growing season remaining, persistent hot and dry weather could jeopardize final outcomes.
Germany
Germany faced temperatures between 3°C and 4°C above average in June. Tyler and Knight stressed that grain and oilseed crops such as wheat, barley, and rapeseed (canola) are vulnerable to heat at this stage of development. The EC now expects yields for these crops to fall below the five-year average. While rainfall in June helped recover some soil moisture, reserves remain low, and further precipitation is needed to stabilize crops. High temperatures are also affecting vegetable production. Sugar beet and potato crops face risks of deformities and stunted growth. Reports also indicate increasing pressure from pests and disease, further threatening yields.
Romania
Winter wheat, barley and rapeseed production is set to increase steeply year-on-year in Romania, thanks to widely distributed rains, according to Blary.
“Romania should consolidate its position among leading cereal and oilseed producing countries. Nevertheless, scorching temperatures and dry conditions prevailed in June. Main producing areas only received very scarce precipitation whilst monthly average temperatures exceeded seasonal norms by 1-2 °C. Such early summer conditions do not bode well for future sunflower and corn harvests, which are already capped by reduced acreage,” Blary said.
Figure 2. Rainfall percentage anomaly for Europe during June 2025. Expana and The Weather Company.
Winter Wheat – Europe
Ben Barritt, Market Reporter Grains, Expana, commented, “Sources widely agree that winter crops (wheat) across Europe are less vulnerable to hot and dry conditions at this point, as the majority of the planted area has largely matured and is later in key development stages. Some market players have continued to say that the dry weather could in fact benefit harvesting pace for the 2025/2026 season. However, there are some concerns that the weather conditions could threaten the protein content in the wheat, especially in the event that harvesting slowed alongside an absence of rainfall to provide relief.”
“Market participants believe that corn, on the other hand, is much more threatened by European heatwaves, especially in regions that do not irrigate their fields. Which would be the case for EU producers such as Germany, Poland, Bulgaria, Romania, and Hungary. In France, an estimated 60% of the maize area is irrigated. Without rainfall to relieve the crop, there are expectations in the market of revisions to production forecasts,” he added.
Potatoes – Europe
Looking at the overall and current European potato situation, Craig Elliott, Market Reporter at Expana, commented, “As of mid-July, favorable growing conditions were reported in most European potato cultivation regions. In addition, the potato area in Europe has recorded significant expansion, according to market sources, supporting the crop outlook at a time of very low prices.”
“Prices for European processing potatoes continue to be very low, as the market struggles with a high supply-low demand situation. With the new crop approaching, old-crop stocks are still substantial, and the weather conditions will be a key watch-out factor over the coming weeks,” Elliott added.
Co-authored by:
James Tyler, Weather and Crop Researcher
Erin Knight, Research Analyst
Ben Barritt, Market Reporter Grains
Craig Elliott, Market Reporter
Aurélien Blary, Crop Analyst
Image source: Getty
Written by Simon Duke
