China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs announced on September 23 that a record grains harvest is expected this year, despite earlier droughts and floods that had raised concerns about yield prospects.
The autumn grain harvest is now underway, including corn, with sources estimating completion at 20–30%. Market participants noted that progress could accelerate as drier conditions in northeastern regions are supporting fieldwork.
Traders said that above-average yields, expanded planted area, and the use of new technologies, such as gardening robots, have all contributed to the outlook for a record harvest. Sources added that this forms part of China’s wider strategy to strengthen domestic supply chains and boost agricultural consumption in support of local producers.
For wheat, sources expressed cautious optimism ahead of winter planting. Showers in central growing regions have improved soil moisture, but market players remain wary given that last year’s crop was hit by drought in late May and early June.
The USDA currently forecasts China’s 2025/2026 corn production at a record 295 million mt, while wheat output is projected at 140 million mt.
Market attention remains fixed on how China’s harvest will affect import demand. Once a major buyer of global grain, China has sharply reduced imports in recent years due to high stockpiles, stronger domestic harvests, and a push to reduce reliance on foreign supply. Sources said this sharp decline in Chinese demand has been a key bearish factor for global grain markets, and any signs of renewed buying are being watched closely. Given current optimism, participants expect demand to remain subdued in the near term, keeping pressure on prices in an already well-supplied global market.
Written by Ben Barritt
