Key Takeaways
- Q3 imports fall 15.2% YOY as safeguard tariff weighs on Australian trade
- US overtakes Australia in September for first time since February
- Record YTD imports mask slowing growth as first-half gains erode
Korea’s beef imports fell 15.2% year-on-year (YOY) to 113,821 metric tons (MT) in the third quarter (Q3) of 2026, as Australia’s July safeguard trigger weighed on shipments and the United States (US) regained the monthly lead in September, according to the latest Korea Customs Service data.
The US overtook Australia for the first time since February, with September imports reaching 17,160 MT against Australia’s 16,351 MT. Australian shipments fell 27.3% YOY, while US volumes declined a more modest 4.9%.
Despite the quarterly contraction, Korea’s cumulative beef imports reached a record 397,866 MT through September, up 1.3% YOY, reflecting heavy first-half front-loading before Australia’s safeguard tariff took effect.
The 24% Korea-Australia Free Trade Agreement (KAFTA) out-of-quota safeguard tariff was triggered on July 21, when Australia’s annual tariff-rate quota was exhausted on day 202 of the year, the earliest on record and 53 days ahead of 2025.
September: US Regains Monthly Lead
Korea’s September beef imports totaled 35,901 MT, down 1.6% month-on-month (MOM) and 16.6% YOY, marking the third consecutive month of YOY declines.
Monthly YOY declines deepened from 5.0% in July to 23.2% in August before easing in September, with Q3 imports also falling 3.8% from the preceding quarter.
Australian shipments declined 16.3% MOM to 16,351 MT, their lowest monthly level since February, while US volumes rose 11.4% MOM to 17,160 MT.
The shift highlighted the contrasting tariff treatment of the two origins. US beef retained duty-free access under the Korea-US Free Trade Agreement (KORUS), while Australian beef faced the 24% out-of-quota safeguard tariff.
Australia nevertheless retained its YTD lead, accounting for 51.6% of imports, or 205,323 MT, up 10.0% YOY, compared with the US’s 43.2% share, or 172,068 MT, down 4.0% YOY. Australia’s lead largely reflected first-half front-loading rather than post-trigger purchasing activity.
Among smaller suppliers, New Zealand shipments rose 67.7% MOM and 39.2% YOY to 1,699 MT, their highest monthly level since March. Canadian volumes fell 80.8% YOY to just 171 MT, the lowest since July 2018.
Elevated Inventories Keep Buying Subdued
Buying activity remained muted through September as elevated importer inventories limited fresh commitments ahead of the Chuseok holiday.
Demand faced competition from relatively cheaper pork products and government-backed Chuseok discounts on domestic Hanwoo beef. A weaker Korean won further weighed on import purchasing power.
Conditions remained subdued after the holiday, with importers continuing to work through existing inventories, limiting demand for additional imported beef.
January 2027 Quota Reset Draws Attention
Attention is shifting toward the January 2027 KAFTA quota reset, with market sources expecting importers to favor bonded-warehouse purchases of frozen Australian beef for deferred customs clearance in the new year.
However, the clawback mechanism covering eligible at-sea tonnage is expected to reduce the effective quota available at the start of 2027, potentially tightening in-quota access earlier than anticipated.
With Australia’s safeguard tariff remaining in place through year-end, the timing of customs clearance and the availability of 2027 in-quota access are becoming increasingly important considerations for Australian beef shipments to Korea.
Image source: Getty
Written by Junie Lin, Joe Muldowney and Bill Smith
