A fast-moving animal pest is already reshaping beef markets. Expana explains what the New World screwworm is, why recent developments are contributing to elevated US beef prices, and practical steps food buyers can take now to protect supply and margin.
The problem in one paragraph
The New World screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) is a fly whose larvae burrow into living flesh of warm-blooded animals. That makes it uniquely destructive: infestations cause painful, fast‑spreading wounds, heavy production losses, and, importantly for the food chain, movement bans and trade disruption. Since the new outbreak that began spreading northward through Central America and Mexico, a combination of import restrictions and control measures in Mexico and beyond has already tightened supply and put upward pressure on beef prices in the US..
Why the New World Screwworm matters to the food industry
Direct supply shock: With Mexican live cattle imports restricted, US processing plants and wholesalers face reduced inbound volumes, tightening available cuts and driving spot price volatility.
Margin pressure: Higher raw‑material costs feed straight into foodservice and retail margins unless sourcing or pricing strategies change.
Operational headaches: Quarantines and transport restrictions complicate logistics and scheduling for processors and distributors.
Reputation and safety concerns: A reported travel-associated human case in August 2025 and visible animal suffering triggered media attention and consumer questions – companies need clear communications and reassurance about food safety.
Rapid escalation risk: Screwworm can spread quickly if not contained; a localized outbreak can become a regional supply disruption in a short window.
Trade impact: Mexican export restrictions have already narrowed available supplies to the US, contributing to recent year‑over‑year price rises for slaughter cattle and retail beef cuts. CattleFax’s 6-State Fed Steer Price for live cattle (customer access only) averaged $242.92/cwt in September 2025, up 33% year-over-year and a seasonal record high.
Control response: A binational eradication plan is active – efforts include reactivating sterile‑insect production, mass releases of sterilized flies, aerial operations and technical field teams. The USDA have announced that they will build a facility to fight the infestation in Texas. The HHS have allowed FDA emergency use of animal drugs (customer access only) to treat and prevent further infestations. These measures can succeed, but they take time and sustained effort.
Human case reports: There has been one confirmed case (customer access only) of human screwworm infestation detected domestically; the individual has since recovered, however such incidents heighten public attention and demand for transparency.
What food industry leaders should do now
- Reassess sourcing mix: Identify alternative supply channels and buffer suppliers that are not exposed to affected regions.
- Increase visibility: Use near‑real‑time market monitoring for cattle and beef prices so you can react quickly to tightness or spikes.
- Strengthen contracts: Negotiate clauses that address force majeure, delivery flex, and price pass‑through to manage risk in volatile months.
- Communicate proactively: Prepare consumer and customer-facing messages explaining steps you’re taking on safety, traceability and sourcing to maintain confidence.
- Coordinate with suppliers: Ask processors and packers about their contingency plans, biosecurity measures and estimated timelines for normalised flows.
How Expana can help
Expana has been tracking this situation since the December 2024 outbreak. Our beef price coverage and supplier‑level visibility give customers early warning of regional squeezes so buying teams can pivot quickly and protect margins. We also produce tailored supplier risk maps and scenario forecasts that quantify potential cost exposure across contracts and SKUs.
Take action
If you want to see how exposed your supply book is – and what practical steps to take next – request a demo. We’ll show you real‑time price impacts, alternative supply options and a playbook to reduce disruption while the eradication effort continues.
Image source: Adobe
Written by Owen Wright
