The Euronext wheat milling futures price [Expana Code: WHT2] settled at €223.50/mt on March 14, 2025, up 0.79% week-on-week (w-o-w). European wheat prices experienced a modest increase last week, driven by several factors, including uncertainty surrounding US tariffs, currency fluctuations and weather developments in the northern hemisphere. Market participants noted that the varying impacts of US tariffs on exporters’ currencies could significantly shape trade dynamics if current trends continue.
On Monday, March 10, Expana learned that China has implemented new tariffs on US agricultural products. However, shipments already in transit will be exempt from these additional duties until April 12. The measure includes a 15% additional tariff on chicken, wheat, corn and cotton. As well as a 10% additional tariff imposed on soybeans, sorghum, pork, beef, aquatic products, fruits, vegetables and dairy products. Furthermore, Expana heard that there is strong growth potential for 2024/2025 Chinese wheat production due to favorable weather conditions. Chinese imports are expected to decline further on the back of this, and the recent WASDE report has confirmed this. As a result, China once again will limit its reliance on imports in the upcoming year. On top of an optimistic production outlook, China has also pledged to increase its budget for Grain reserves by 6.1% (2024/2025) year-on-year (y-o-y) ($18.12 billion). Market participants have suggested that China may be falling back on these reserves in response to US trade policies. It is also known that China is making wider attempts to become independent from the market, increasing reliance on domestic supply. This could weigh on global demand at a time when world production is at an all-time high, potentially exacerbating the imbalance.
